Game 3, move 11: roadkillbooks 5-4 FORCED, move 12: Forum 6-3

[Zorba]

Sorry for the delay folks 

Last move, the Forum pointed on the 2pt with 6/2* 4/2. roadkillbooks gets lucky with a 5-4, entering both checkers from the bar. Now it's the Forum(blue) with a 6-3 to play:

jDN4wAXbmGCCIQ:QQmvACAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We have an advanced anchor and a four point board vs a two point board for rkb.
This means we shouldn't necessarily be shy about leaving a blot or two.

OTOH, we have an almost 40 pip lead and fewer men which argues for a more cautious play.  In any case, 24/21 20/14, 24/21 15/9, 24/21 8/2, and 20/11 just seem to spread blots all over the place for no apparent gain.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the value in these moves.

15/6 breaks communication between our golden point and the midpoint without really accomplishing much more than saftying the blot on the 15.  Nah.

That leaves the running play 24/15  and the hitting play 13/4*.

My first instinct was to run.  It's obvious.  It gets the runner moving, and gives good communication between our points in rkb's side of the board.  Yes, it leaves a double shot in our outfield, but that's not too bad as we have the golden point and a big racing lead.

What about the hit?  It leaves 5 count 'em 5 blots.  But, it takes away one hitting number for him to enter, and both if he dances.  He'll need to roll a 4 or 5-3 to hit (about a 1/3 chance) and if he misses, any direct four, nine or eleven covers the four point (about a 50% chance).  So the odds are good that he'll dance and we'll cover.

I think hitting has some merit, but I just don't have the stomach for it here.  5 blots is alot and I'm not looking forward to cleaning them up if he enters.  So I'll go for the safer play here. 24/15

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[stog]

Spoiler

13/4* hit - this is it! we have an anchor and a board - let's use it

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[lewscannon]

Spoiler

We have an advanced anchor and a four point board vs a two point board for rkb.
This means we shouldn't necessarily be shy about leaving a blot or two.

OTOH, we have an almost 40 pip lead and fewer men which argues for a more cautious play.  In any case, 24/21 20/14, 24/21 15/9, 24/21 8/2, and 20/11 just seem to spread blots all over the place for no apparent gain.  Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see the value in these moves.

15/6 breaks communication between our golden point and the midpoint without really accomplishing much more than saftying the blot on the 15.  Nah.

That leaves the running play 24/15  and the hitting play 13/4*.

My first instinct was to run.  It's obvious.  It gets the runner moving, and gives good communication between our points in rkb's side of the board.  Yes, it leaves a double shot in our outfield, but that's not too bad as we have the golden point and a big racing lead.

What about the hit?  It leaves 5 count 'em 5 blots.  But, it takes away one hitting number for him to enter, and both if he dances.  He'll need to roll a 4 or 5-3 to hit (about a 1/3 chance) and if he misses, any direct four, nine or eleven covers the four point (about a 50% chance).  So the odds are good that he'll dance and we'll cover.

I think hitting has some merit, but I just don't have the stomach for it here.  5 blots is alot and I'm not looking forward to cleaning them up if he enters.  So I'll go for the safer play here. 24/15

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Spoiler

To continue on this, I vote the 24-15 as well, for most of the above reasons. We don't have much to fear if rkb hits the blot, as a hitting battle plays largely into our favor and we would in all likelyhood have a double shot at whatever piece he would hit us with. If we make the 15 point, we're also well around the board and could make riskier moves going forward before rkb makes a decent home board for himself. We're still going to have to deal with his residence on our 5 point sooner or later, and that may trip us up. If we get any shots at loose (lews) blots going forward, we should hit, with an eye on somehow filling in our 4 point and running past him while he dances like Fred Astaire.

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[diane]

Spoiler

hit hit hit for me 

[close]

[socksey]

Spoiler

"Hit" was my first instinct, so I'm sticking with it!   

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socksey



The Carnegie Hall of sex in America - Hunter S. Thompson, the night manager of the O'Farrell Theatre of San Francisco (I was there one night with my aunt and a room full of men with flashlights.  The only other 2 women in the room were the performers.   )

[ah_clem]

gnubg results

Spoiler

The hitting play is best, but the running play is not a blunder.  The running play wins more games, but the hitting play wins more gammons - enough to make it superior at this match score.  Kudos to the forum members who had the stones to hit.

 

Evaluation:
    1. Cubeful 2-ply    13/4*                        Eq.:  +0.264
       0.545 0.243 0.005 - 0.455 0.126 0.007
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    24/15                        Eq.:  +0.178 ( -0.086)
       0.546 0.175 0.003 - 0.454 0.106 0.002
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    15/6                         Eq.:  +0.119 ( -0.145)
       0.520 0.177 0.003 - 0.480 0.102 0.002


Rollout:
    1. Rollout          13/4*                        Eq.:  +0.140
       0.515 0.211 0.002 - 0.485 0.151 0.024 CL  +0.230 CF  +0.140
      [0.003 0.003 0.000 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.008 CF   0.009]
    2. Rollout          24/15                        Eq.:  +0.101 ( -0.039)
       0.531 0.146 0.002 - 0.469 0.126 0.011 CL  +0.185 CF  +0.101
      [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]       
    3. Rollout          15/6                         Eq.:  +0.060 ( -0.080)
       0.512 0.150 0.001 - 0.488 0.135 0.013 CL  +0.151 CF  +0.060
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.008]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 861002624 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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