Game 3, move 13: roadkillbooks 4-1

[Zorba]

The Forum played their ugly 2-1 15/13 8/7, now it's roadkillbooks (white) to play 4-1:

21jgBAOMM3gGAw:AQGmACAAAAAA

[NIHILIST]

Please, Brer Roadkill, don't throw us in that briar patch.


Bob

[diane]

  I wonder if he will!

Spoiler

hard to know what to do with this - the hit seems so awful, that moving 13-8 seems better!!

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[roadkillbooks]

A quite sorry roll  I guess all that means is that its on the lower half of preferred rolls.  I definitely wanted to hit. The hit here however is not strong. I leave 2 blots and i havent counted but there are a lot of return shots and my board is considerably weaker than the forums right now.  This will not be the last chance for a hit in this situation.  Finally unstacking and adding a builder to my forever stripped 8 point seems like a constructive thing to do. My 8 point has been stripped since I desperately covered it a month ago.  The hit seems a bit desperate.  Over the board it's an easy play to do when on gets caught in the flow of the game and is thinking...HIT...HIT...HIT.  Each move is a new opportunity though.
13/8

[Zorba]

GnuBG 4-ply:

Spoiler

Definitely right to shun the hit here. If you look at the w/g/bg breakdown, you see hitting does not win more games than simply playing 13/8. It does however lose an extra 6.5% gammons, which makes it a Whopper to hit.

    1. Cubeful 4-ply    13/8                         Eq.:  -0,0607
        47,99  11,14   0,22 -  52,01  13,25   0,20
        4-ply cubeful prune
    2. Cubeful 4-ply    15/10*                       Eq.:  -0,1583 ( -0,0976)
        47,92  10,69   0,24 -  52,08  19,85   0,54
        4-ply cubeful prune

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