Game 3, move 14: roadkillbooks 6-3

[Zorba]

The Forum decided for 20/15 7/4 last turn, now it's roadkillbooks (white) to play 6-3:

2zLgDAKMc3AGAw:AQGvACAAAAAA

[diane]

Spoiler

I almost daren't say anything after my mess up with the last move..   buuuut, somehow I can't help myself  ...
I would say he still cant risk a hit - and in his shoes, I would be moving 13-4!!

[close]

[roadkillbooks]

This is a very tempting and seemingly juicy move.  For me the match score has a lot to do with it.  Last move a decided not to hit.  Now forum has a blot on their board.  For me the hit with the 3 is very clear. The problem arises when I go to play the 6. I still only have a 2 point board.  That is quite less than a 4 point board with 2 blots including one with a direct shot its kinda scary.  The main problem with the hit is the "what do I do for an encore" which I believe someone mentioned previously. Im already fighting to contain the one checker.  My anchor mean Im not scared to get hit once.  A double hit is different.  If I was losing here I think Id be hitting in a heart beat.  Since Im winning I fine maintaining the staus quo of this game.  Im afraid I might be getting cold feet but maintaining the status quo cant be that bad because the hit clearly isnt great.
13/4...really the extra blot is killer.  I can live with the direct 5 hit  ..but the 7's kill me...

[NIHILIST]

You're winning ? What game are you watching ? You're buried in the pipcount, you're now declining a second hit due to an inferior board position, and you're stripping your position to the point that you may be forced to do something desperate in the next move or two.


Bob

[dorbel]

I understood rkb to mean that he is winning the match and thus wishes to avoid a mutually gammonish position, rather than winning this game, which looks pretty even to me.

[Zorba]

I'll be gone for holidays and I'm not sure I'll be on Internet until the 23rd, diane will take over the match from here. Attached is the GnuBG SGF matchfile of our match, especially for diane. I already got the new dice roll for the team in there, so you can use that right away. Wish you good luck! 

[roadkillbooks]

Im sorry for sounding confusing.  I meant (as dorbel expressed), If i was down 2-0 in the match Id probally be hitting.  Since I am ahead in the match I would rather play a bit safer.  It is only a 2 point board.  Playing a type of holding game and leaving my chances to future rolls just seems a bit better now than hitting a checker that will be hard to contain in my inner board.

roadkillbooks

[Zorba]

GnuBG 0/2-ply rollout:

Spoiler

The loose hit is way too risky indeed. It wins only a fraction more games, but costs more than 6% extra gammon losses.

   1. Rollout          13/4                         Eq.:  -0,0573
       47,33  13,45   1,77 -  52,67  12,59   0,19 CL  -0,1285 CF  -0,0573
     [  0,12   0,15   0,14 -   0,12   0,11   0,02 CL   0,0034 CF   0,0039]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866958214 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
       Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   2. Rollout          13/7 8/5*                    Eq.:  -0,1411 ( -0,0838)
       47,57  14,26   1,82 -  52,43  19,02   0,22 CL  -0,2102 CF  -0,1411
     [  0,13   0,15   0,14 -   0,13   0,13   0,03 CL   0,0040 CF   0,0044]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866958214 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
       Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]