Game 3, move 15: Forum 5-2

[diane]

Ok, here goes with the next move that Zorba had so kindly pre rolled for us - and you will all breathe a sigh of relief that it wasn't me rolling, I am sure  

Forum (blue) to move 5-2  [I think I caught all the possibilities there, including daft ones - let me know if something you want isn't there  ]

LOdgBgPbMuAMAg:QQm1ACAAAAAA

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Ray Charles would play this 20-13.

[close]

Bob

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

The 20-13 seems like an obvious choice, and ultimately gets my vote. Looking at it further, there might something to be said about the 13-6, in which we can gain some flexibility, hinder rkb's home development and maybe catch a shot at another blot, if rkb rolls something bad. The problem with that is if he rolls a 3-1, 2-1, 4-4, 1-1 type of roll and we find ourselves in a pickle. So playing it safe looks like the best choice.

[close]

[diane]

it is starting to look very nextish.......

[KDP]

Spoiler

20-13 for me

[close]

[roadkillbooks]

I can't see how the voting is going but is this ready or is there debate...I don't see any debate in the forum.

thx,

roadkillbooks

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Run. Run like hell.  Next? 

[close]

[diane]

ok, I can move on, now you have taken part    And buckle up - from here on in, I am rolling 

[diane]

Can someone who knows what they are doing set gnu on this move, my amateurish meddling seems to be coming up with a different move from the one Ray Charles would make.  Lewscannon was the only one of us sniffing around what it seems to be suggesting is the better move.

[diane]

Cooeee, ah_clem....this way with your gnu machine....

[dorbel]

I rolled this one out with Snowie, which indicates that 20/13 is probably correct, but that 13/6 is a good alternate, basically swapping some wins for some extra gammons. Against a human it might even be right, because the play for White after 13/6 is usually more difficult than if Blue just runs. Well spotted Lews.

[Zorba]

Yo, I'm back! 

Catching up with the match, here's a GnuBG 2-ply rollout that I ran while on holiday:

Spoiler

Extremely close, with just a bit over 95% statistical significance that 13/6 is the better move.

    1. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  +0,1036
        53,51  14,92   0,21 -  46,49  13,65   1,91 CL  +0,1786 CF  +0,1036
      [  0,10   0,12   0,02 -   0,10   0,18   0,18 CL   0,0028 CF   0,0032]
    2. Rollout          20/13                        Eq.:  +0,0953 ( -0,0083)
        55,59  10,03   0,16 -  44,41  11,71   1,15 CL  +0,1633 CF  +0,0953
      [  0,10   0,11   0,02 -   0,10   0,17   0,13 CL   0,0027 CF   0,0030]
    3. Rollout          20/15 13/11                  Eq.:  +0,0492 ( -0,0544)
        52,35  12,91   0,25 -  47,65  13,99   1,78 CL  +0,1217 CF  +0,0492
      [  0,10   0,12   0,02 -   0,10   0,17   0,16 CL   0,0028 CF   0,0033]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        3888 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 866958214 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0,16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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