Game 3, move 22: roadkillbooks 5-1

[diane]

roadkillbooks to move 5-1....this could get interesting 

[roadkillbooks]

choices choices.  Well I see 2 plays here and the debate is similar to the one the forum just had. Safe or risky.  The difference for me is that I essentially have to hit and if I break my board the hitting becomes a lot less efficient. The 2 plays i see are 6/1, 5/4 and 12/7, 5/4 Can I leave a blot exposed? Isnt the 5 point board sweet? Also most moves after this are pretty much going to be either forced or nextish.

I love the 5 point board...if im not hit AND i hit, Ill pretty much have to wrapped up id say about 90+% of the time..i would then be in territory wondering if i want to redouble.  BUT i will be hit a full 1/3 of the time.  The blot play leads to the game being decided now.  Forums rolls will either be killers or dogs with only 3-1 maintaining the status quo. (some double may as well..well maybe only 5-5). 

My safe play puts it all on the shelf.  Forum still has the usual suspects as jokers/anti jokers but the situation is less volatile.  A key to me is that by playing safe, i still have the 6 point slotted.  Although I bury a checker (especially bad since im down in the race), Im not abandoning my board.  Also my gammon risk must go up leaving the blot although it does not seem high due to my high anchor.   This is probally close and may come down to the simple 6-2 .. While any two hurts, these are numbers that playing safe would be really good for me (anti-joker). The 6-2 now dooms me. I love this number because if forum rolls it, then I roll it...its the same number for anti and regular joker.  (i think im just justfying at this point).

Anyway a good rule of thumb is..if your not entirely sure play it safe...(although that's a rule we all love breaking OFTEN)

Im going for safe 6/1, 5/4