game 4 forum move 4.. black to move 41 anticlockwise

[stog]

let me know if u want any other move options added, but this should be a good start......

[diane]

I will be back home later tonight, and can pick this up again from tomorrow, until we find out what happened to Zorba

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Nothing really stands out as actually good, but some moves are definitely less good than others. 

Moving the backman up to the 20 is just asking to get pointed on - every roll without a 5 points on his head. 

Moving him one point puts him utg (six rolls that point on his head instead of 2) without increasing the odds of leaping over the blockade.  So, maybe this is a reasonable way to waste the one if we had to, but it's not constructive.

I don't like the idea of abandoning the midpoint, although we're probably going to be forced to before too long.

That leaves playing the spares on our blockade.  6/1 burries a checker. Putting a checker on the 2 pt with 6/2 8/7 is almost as bad.  How about a checker on the 3?  8/3 is not an option for the vote, perhaps it should be.  The problem with 8/3 is that it leaves a stack on the 6 and stripls the other points. nah.

8/7 6/2 seems the least bad of the bunch so I'll go with that.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

i think we must risk being pointed, as we may well get trapped if not, and at the moment his board is not fearful, but is likely to become so, if we don't try and exit now.. i recommend 24/20 8/7

[close]

[dorbel]

Tough play!

Spoiler

It seems risky to come up to the 20pt, let's face it, it is risky but we have to try. If White makes the 5pt we are in bad trouble anyway, whether we are on the bar or on the 24pt.
Stepping up threatens to escape and challenges White to throw a good number immediately and does at least create some bad numbers for him. Hanging back and dumping a checker behind the anchor does none of these things. Better a walk on part in the war than a lead role in a cage............

24/20, 8/7

[close]

[lewscannon]

Spoiler

I think there are a few valid ways to play this. It depends on what you feel comfortable doing. I don't like moving the 24-20 particularly. If we do that, I have a feeling RKB will cube and that's not a decision I want to face with a fairly certain hit and point made on the 5 point. I prefer the 24-23, 8-4 move. This makes it a bit tougher for him to make points in his home board without possibly exposing a blot and also helps us maybe make the 4 point. I'm not married to this idea, but it's what I would do.

[close]

[diane]

Zorba dropped by and asked me to pick this up, as he still has problems logging in.  I have taken the last complete gnu file and added in all the moves made to date, so we will have a complete record of the match - if anyone wants it 

I will give this a couple more hours, then move it along.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Moving the backman up to the 20 is the best play.  Despite the high chance of being pointed on, better to take that chance now rather than waiting til it's too late to escape.




4LtNAAPg2w0DIA:cAmmACAAEAAA


   1. Rollout          24/20 8/7                    Eq.:  -0.414
      0.422 0.060 0.003 - 0.578 0.146 0.007 CL  -0.286 CF  -0.414
     [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.013]
       
   2. Rollout          24/20 13/12                  Eq.:  -0.441 ( -0.027)
      0.412 0.054 0.002 - 0.588 0.148 0.004 CL  -0.306 CF  -0.441
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.013]
     
   3. Rollout          24/23 8/4                    Eq.:  -0.508 ( -0.095)
      0.395 0.062 0.006 - 0.605 0.138 0.007 CL  -0.325 CF  -0.508
     [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.013]
       
   4. Rollout          24/23 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.513 ( -0.100)
      0.390 0.052 0.004 - 0.610 0.124 0.004 CL  -0.318 CF  -0.513
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.013]

   5. Rollout          13/12 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.515 ( -0.102)
      0.385 0.055 0.005 - 0.615 0.113 0.005 CL  -0.315 CF  -0.515
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.013]

   6. Rollout          24/23 6/2                    Eq.:  -0.519 ( -0.105)
      0.394 0.062 0.004 - 0.606 0.152 0.009 CL  -0.341 CF  -0.519
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]

   7. Rollout          13/9 8/7                     Eq.:  -0.544 ( -0.131)
      0.382 0.055 0.006 - 0.618 0.120 0.006 CL  -0.325 CF  -0.544
     [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.013]
     
   8. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  -0.556 ( -0.143)
      0.377 0.061 0.004 - 0.623 0.120 0.004 CL  -0.334 CF  -0.556
     [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.014]
       
   9. Rollout          8/7 6/2                      Eq.:  -0.558 ( -0.144)
      0.384 0.061 0.004 - 0.616 0.146 0.008 CL  -0.353 CF  -0.558
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
       
  10. Rollout          8/3                          Eq.:  -0.571 ( -0.157)
      0.379 0.059 0.002 - 0.621 0.137 0.007 CL  -0.353 CF  -0.571
     [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.014]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865816185 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[dorbel]

I hadn't expected the differences to be so large here. Of course rkb's next roll, the problem 5-2, illustrates why 24/20 is so important. If we stay back he just makes the 4pt, big gain, small risk. Note too, how well 24/20, 13/12 does. The extra risk is largely illusory as 6-1 and 6-2 are duplicated.