Game 4, move 6 : Forum Cubed, rkb take?

[diane]

Anyone else want to follow Ah-Clems lead?  

wrcNgAnguw0LAA:cAmgACAAEAAA

[dorbel]

Spoiler

This might just be a double, but I would like to wait until (a), I've made a point inboard and(b) I've picked up the last straggler. White's checker on the 22pt is probably more use to him than it is to us now, but that will change when we have another point and our checkers are better spread.
I wouldn't argue too much with a partner who wanted to double this, but I think that we can get a stronger cube in later.

[close]

Spoiler inserted - Diane

[diane]

ok, rkb, we cubed - do you take?

[roadkillbooks]

DROP

There are several things that push me to a drop.

a) Match score.  My take point is higher than normal at 3 away, 3 away
While I have a knack to totally mess up these calculations.  I need a 30% chance to take.

b) Pip count down 142-125 in a straight race this would be a drop even for money

c) In a five point holding game, one normally has an easy take even if way down... if the opponent has not made the bar point.  If the bar point is made, some claim only race considerations should be taking in cube decisions.  I don't quite buy that and will take 5 point holding games when the bar is made..somewhere a little in between a straight race and the holding game w/o the bar point.  Here the nine point is also made so it's gotta be less than that.

d)While I have a 4 prime of my own,  my distribution is excrement and Im proablly going to bury pieces and have an akward board when a shot appears.  And the shot will most likely be sooner than later.  Plus with the forum 4 prime there are tons of numbers that don't leave a shot at all. 6-5,6-4,5-4 plus all the usual doubles

e)plus I have an extra blot back which doesnt even give me normal holding game equity

eb) on the plus side..forum has an extra straggler as well. 2-1 and 3-1 are the only numbers that i see that leave a shot next turn.  although one might play 2-2 in a way that leaves one.  So then the shot would be know and even i hit it will be 2 back vs 1 back so Ill be probably 40% (wild ass guess) best IF that happens. 

f) So Im in a pickle, I left the straggler piece back to complicate things. But it also hurts my small race chances.  The more I ponder on about this the clearer it seems.  But I had to justify my general feeling.

g) Taking and an immediate redouble to speed this up is a plus for speed but would definitely be a blunder.  But hey it was only one of the games which took an eternity.

[ah_clem]

Rollout

Spoiler

   

Close cube.  Huge pass.  The position is pretty stable and we've already lost our market, so it doesn't cost much to take a wait and see approach as Dorbel advocated since we'll still have a cube next roll.  Cashing now is correct by small margin.

   

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.556 (Money:  +0.530)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.272  ( +0.272)
3. No double            +0.991  ( -0.009)
Proper cube action: Double, pass
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.744 0.069 0.002 - 0.256 0.027 0.001 CL  +0.556 CF  +0.991
[0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.002 CF   0.006]
Player rkb owns 2-cube:
  0.763 0.067 0.007 - 0.237 0.025 0.001 CL  +1.514 CF  +1.272
[0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.010 CF   0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 865699843 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

He would have taken last move 

[ah_clem]

He would have taken last move 

And if I knew we were going to roll 65 I would have voted to double.

[diane]