Game 5, move 9 : Forum 1-1

[diane]

rkb danced again with 6-5 !! how obliging    zLaDAVBs24IxAA:cAmgACAAGAAA

So we (blue) are up again with 1-1   zLaDAVBs24IxAA:cImkACAAGAAA

Always lots of things to do with doubles like this - sadly not the main thing we were hoping for 

[dorbel]

Spoiler

What was Diane hoping for? This is fine if we play 3-1*(2). It comits us to blitzing and takes away the priming option, but that's ok, we were going to have to choose one or the other at some point and the dice have made the choice for us.

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[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

Do what the dice dictate, go for the switch 3/1* (2)

With this roll our strategy is going to change completely but there is no need to waste the potential of this roll and play something timid.

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[stog]

Spoiler

ok i'm persuaded -   my cats seem to know best; i've switched to hit!

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Note that switching points and putting a second checker on the bar makes it impossible for rkb to hit the blot.  That's not the most important virtue of 3/1(2)*, but it's a nice feature. 3/1(2)* is aggressive and completely safe at the same time.   Yes, it breaks our 5-prime, but two checkers on the bar against a 4 point board is worth it. 

Also note that the checkers on the 6 are now builders.

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[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

Also note that the checkers on the 6 are now builders.

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Spoiler

on the 7, eh? 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

on the 7, eh? 

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Yeah.  The Seven, of course. 

[diane]

Spoiler

Oooh, I would never have gone for that second hit - I think I have mentioned before that I can never see the difference between the times we do do this, and the times we dont!! 

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Oooh, I would never have gone for that second hit - I think I have mentioned before that I can never see the difference between the times we do do this, and the times we dont!!  

As Dorbel said recently, it's time to be agressive.  We've got rkb on the ropes, so we need to attack.  Moving the checkers on the 16 is not attacking.  The checkers on the 13 can't move.  So, what's the best thing to do with  the plays that remain?

We could shift our blot, but that doesn't help at all - might as well move the backmen.  The only other options are to break the 5-prime, which while we don't really want to do that, offers a couple of agressive plays. 8/5 7/6 (which isn't a voting option, but should be) brings a third builder to bear on the open points in the home board and rkb's blot.

But why prepare to hit his blot when we can just hit it now?  Granted, the hitting/shifting play burries two checkers and breaks the 5 prime, but it puts two checkers on the bar against a four point board with a couple of builders in range and a few more a move away.  If he doesn't anchor in a move or two, he's meat - and he's only got a 2/36 chance of anchoring, while we have a 6/36 chance of making a fifth point next turn.  

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[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

Oooh, I would never have gone for that second hit - I think I have mentioned before that I can never see the difference between the times we do do this, and the times we dont!!  

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Spoiler

One time you should not do this is when you are in danger your back men will be stuck and cannot escape. Here we escaped both and game is now tending towards the end.

Then I learned from GNU the switch is most of the time (90% ?)  the correct answer. Switching here ...I would not hesitate a second over the board.  

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Spoiler

.. Granted, the hitting/shifting play burries two checkers..

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Spoiler

Well I would  be rather careful using the word bury here. Its true these checkers cannot move forward and form another point but if you see bury kind of synonym for useless then of course they are not.They fit a perfect sense..making that point while sending an opponent checker back.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

And the winner is.....


    1. Rollout          3/1*(2)                      Eq.:  +1.338
       0.757 0.521 0.023 - 0.243 0.054 0.004 CL  +1.368 CF  +1.338
      [0.002 0.004 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.012]
       
    2. Rollout          16/15(2) 8/6                 Eq.:  +1.261 ( -0.077)
       0.803 0.365 0.020 - 0.197 0.035 0.004 CL  +1.207 CF  +1.261
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]
       
    3. Rollout          16/14(2)                     Eq.:  +1.246 ( -0.092)
       0.821 0.321 0.018 - 0.179 0.029 0.003 CL  +1.189 CF  +1.246
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.010]

    4. Rollout          8/4                          Eq.:  +1.242 ( -0.097)
       0.789 0.387 0.022 - 0.211 0.043 0.002 CL  +1.191 CF  +1.242
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.007 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 871181490 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

Congrats to the forum for another good decision.

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