Game 5, move 11 : Forum 3-2

[diane]

Well rkb finally got a checker in - rolling 5-2  Y9sGMQDMtoMBYA:MAG1ACAAGAAA

And the forum obviously enjoys this 3-2 so much, we rolled it again!!

Forum, blue, to move 3-2  Once again - if your choice isnt there, let me know.

zLaDAUhj2wYxAA:cAmtACAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The obvious move is 13/8.  And this is probably not bad, but is it the best?

Well, it doesn't do a whole lot for us since it doesn't create an extra builder.  It does safety the blot on the 13 though.  Still it seems passive when the theme here should be to attack.

So, what are the agressive moves?  I see three:

1) hit loose with 7/2* 
2) spread builders around with 8/6 7/4  -  not on the menu, but it should be*. 
3) 8/6 8/5



1) and 2) seem roughly equal to me - With move 1) any 2 plus 3-1 enters and hits for a total of 13/36, for move 2) I count 12 rolls that enter and hit.  So basically a one in three chance of being hit.  The four builders we'd have with move 2 create a good chance of making a fifth point, but then so does slotting the 2.  I think it's a tossup.

Move 3) creates slightly less chances of making the 5th point, but at greatly reduced risk.  Three builders rather that 2 is a step forward and I'm willing to take the slight additional risk over the safe 13/8 in order to put more pressure on.

And I'm OK with abandoning the 5 prime since as somebody pointed out we're going to cash if he anchors.

So, put me down for 8/6 8/5

*that's a hint, diane.

[close]

[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

2) spread builders around with 8/6 7/4  -  not on the menu, but it should be*. 

[close]

Spoiler

I dont know if it was correct on the last roll but this its surely a serious blunder.With only one on the bar everything changes and this moves only leaves unnecessary return hits for rkb and even a blot on the 13.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I dont know if it was correct on the last roll but this its surely a serious blunder.With only one on the bar everything changes and this moves only leaves unnecessary return hits for rkb and even a blot on the 13.

While I don't share your certainty that it's a "serious blunder", I do agree that the risk is not worth the reward. 

As for the leading vote, 16/13 16/14, I don't think moving the checkers on the 16 does much of anything for us.  Either we close him out, or he anchors and we cash. The position of those two checkers when one of these thing occur is irrelevant.  We should concentrate on the closeout; this is just a waste of a move.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

So, lets see if I have this right; we played our last 3 moves to get in position to attack if he entered a blot, gammon him, and win the match. But now we're talking about playing safe and cleaning up. This is precisely the situation I feared when we hit him on the 1 point with 1 - 1.

It seems to me that we either follow thru on our strategy and hit him, or we move both from the 16 point with the idea of cashing if he enters. We certainly dont want those 2 checkers stuck on the 16 point if he enters and/or anchors.

[close]

Bob

[dorbel]

Spoiler

spread builders around with 8/6 7/4  -  not on the menu, but it should be

What?! You cannot be serious! This gives 14 shots from the bar and trashes our position for nothing. It has to be a zillion times worse than 7/2* which of course only leaves 11 shots.

And I'm OK with abandoning the 5 prime since as somebody pointed out we're going to cash if he anchors.

I don't think so. If rkb anchors after 8/5, 8/6 he'll happily scoop up a cube, in fact actually I wouldn't even double! it's the five prime that makes for the pass.

We should concentrate on the closeout;

The way to concentrate on the closeout is to whack him. For the last few moves there have been lots of votes for moves designed to attack him when he enters. This roll (one of 30 that hits on the 2pt from our non-attacking five prime note) hits. 7/2* gets my vote.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

ok boys -- i is persuaded and have switched to "whack"

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

ok boys -- i is persuaded and have switched to "whack"

[close]

Me too, but it is still close - anyone else before I move this along?

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

So, lets see if I have this right; we played our last 3 moves to get in position to attack if he entered a blot, gammon him, and win the match. But now we're talking about playing safe and cleaning up. This is precisely the situation I feared when we hit him on the 1 point with 1 - 1.

It seems to me that we either follow thru on our strategy and hit him, or we move both from the 16 point with the idea of cashing if he enters. We certainly dont want those 2 checkers stuck on the 16 point if he enters and/or anchors.

[close]

So, which move do you advocate?  All I see is either / or.  Are you saying it's a tossup?

[NIHILIST]

Either / or, I don't much care. At this point I feel like I'm playing in a chouette with the Marx brothers.

Bob

[ah_clem]

Either / or, I don't much care. At this point I feel like I'm playing in a chouette with the Marx brothers.

Ok. I think I understand now.  

So the reason you're not saying is that you're Harpo?  (c:

[stog]

it's the way we tell 'em

[ah_clem]

Since diane moved it along, here's the rollout

Spoiler

The top two vote-getters are a statistical tie.  Bob seems to have nailed it with his indifference.

So, the forum couldn't go too far wrong here, as long as nobody followed my advice.  8/6 7/4 is truly a whopper of epic proportions; why a four year old child could understand this.
Run out and get me a four year old child.


    1. Rollout          7/2*                         Eq.:  +1.252
       0.731 0.533 0.018 - 0.269 0.072 0.010 CL  +1.315 CF  +1.252
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.008 CF   0.012]
       
    2. Rollout          16/14 16/13                  Eq.:  +1.240 ( -0.012)
       0.757 0.370 0.015 - 0.243 0.045 0.003 CL  +1.114 CF  +1.240
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]
       
    3. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  +1.057 ( -0.195)
       0.735 0.426 0.018 - 0.265 0.060 0.004 CL  +1.040 CF  +1.057
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
       
    4. Rollout          8/6 8/5                      Eq.:  +1.002 ( -0.250)
       0.719 0.403 0.016 - 0.281 0.056 0.005 CL  +1.006 CF  +1.002
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.013]
.
.
.       

(way down the list) Rollout          8/6 7/4                      Eq.:  +0.613 ( -0.639)
       0.622 0.403 0.018 - 0.378 0.114 0.011 CL  +0.714 CF  +0.613
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.008 CF   0.012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 870767566 and
quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[lewscannon]

Either / or, I don't much care. At this point I feel like I'm playing in a chouette with the Marx brothers.

Bob

rofl

[socksey]

Ok. I think I understand now. 

So the reason you're not saying is that you're Harpo?  (c:

socksey



It's amazing how much easier it is for a team to work together when no one has any idea where they're going. - Lithograph from Despair.com