game 5, move 15 : Forum 4-2

[ah_clem]

rkb danced with 5-2.  We rolled a 4-2.
zLaDAWDb7Q4AAA : cAmqACAAGAAA



Again, if we get a consensus in a couple of hours I'll move it along.

[dorbel]

Spoiler

6/off is more risk than we need, paying off to 6-6 and 5-5 next, as well as leaving an awkward distribution after some other rolls. 6/4, 5/1 is technically correct, keeping the three spares on different points.

[close]

[diane]

I am back, if you want me to pick this up...

[ah_clem]

I am back, if you want me to pick this up...

It's all yours, diane.

[ah_clem]

gnubg results

Spoiler

The correct play is to move the spares off of the 5 and 6 point.  There are two ways to do this; gnubg prefers 6/2 5/3 slightly, presumably because the other move leaves a spare on the 4 while the favored move leaves two checkers on the 4, 5, and 6 points.

Bearing off the spare on the six is a beginner's mistake.  The other moves are howlers.



    1. Rollout          6/2 5/3                      Eq.:  +2.771
       0.972 0.909 0.025 - 0.028 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.780 CF  +2.771
      [0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          6/4 5/1                      Eq.:  +2.748 ( -0.023)
       0.966 0.905 0.026 - 0.034 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.759 CF  +2.748
      [0.001 0.002 0.003 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          6/off                        Eq.:  +2.689 ( -0.083)
       0.950 0.900 0.036 - 0.050 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.704 CF  +2.689
      [0.001 0.002 0.003 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]
 
    4. Rollout          6/2 3/1                      Eq.:  +2.583 ( -0.188)
       0.932 0.873 0.025 - 0.068 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.611 CF  +2.583
      [0.001 0.002 0.003 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.007 CF   0.008]

    5. Rollout          4/2 4/off                    Eq.:  +2.525 ( -0.246)
       0.936 0.838 0.028 - 0.064 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.552 CF  +2.525
      [0.001 0.002 0.003 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.007]

    6. Rollout          5/1 3/1                      Eq.:  +2.285 ( -0.486)
       0.879 0.807 0.021 - 0.121 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.351 CF  +2.285
      [0.001 0.002 0.002 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.008 CF   0.009]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 870767566 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]