Game 6, move 6 : roadkillbooks 3-3

[diane]

rkb, white, to move 3-3, have fun 

0OfBATCYZ7cABA:sIGtACAAIAAA

[roadkillbooks]

8/5(2), 6/3(2)

Here I have a great roll.  I know I want my 5 point.  The question then arises if I should make my 3 point with 6/3(2) or make my bar point.  I have already gone back in forth on this in the last 30 secs.  I generally might go for bar but the stack on my 6 will lead to inflexibility.  Then I have to think if I even want the bar.  Or is it just something to clear.  A forum 66 would definately be a joker but it would not be a killer at all.  I think its just best..you normally cant go wrong making inner board points in order.  It will also be easier for me to make the bar if I want after than it will be to make the 3.  We have already established that gammons dont mean much to me so I can expect forum to play a one point game to the very end. the good thing about the bar point is that forums outfield reach is limited but its just not that scary of a board yet.  Im not fully sure and would like to hear other opinions althugh my choice is made,

roadkillbooks

[stog]

good read! thx RKB for the efforts and the thinking -- a deserved good roll
buona fortuna

and i hope you enjoy the added status of silver membership - u join an exclusive group- and can enjoy many of the wee VIP treasures on offer to the patrons and contributors of the board!

i think it would be good to confer this small honour on our Guest Forum Match Players - must fetch one for the first poor man factotum, who entered the forum match den ----------- very brave!

[ah_clem]

The main problem with  "great" rools like this is that there are several things to do with the gift. 

You can make a four-prime 2 to 5 points away from the opponent's point (8/5(2) 6/3(2)), or you can make a four prime 3 to 6 points away ( 10/7(2) 8/5(2)), or you can run the backman and fill in a valuable point with the other two 3's (21/15 10/7(2) or 21/15 8/5(2) ).

What to do?

I like the pure blocking move 10/7(2) 8/5(2).  Blue is going nowhere with this move.  I think it's stronger to  contain the runners than make points in the homeboard and allow an escape.

Or course, I've been spectacularly wrong before.  We'll see what the rollout says.

[stog]

there's also 8/5 2x and escape that chequer in our ,at present empty board,but it may pick up another  blot, it may however get swotted.....21/15 which duplicates one of his entry/possible hit numbers

[roadkillbooks]

Again.. I like the classic blocking play of 10/7(2) but if gammons actually mattered I may have done that one.  I don't really care about getting into a priming game. Im well ahead in a race and if it ends up coming down to hits, Im gonna want a stronger inner board.  I dont want to run my back piece because as usually with low doubles it's good to 2 two things with them  If possible its often best to do things on each side of the board.  Running but not safetying my blot isnt realy doing something but ATTEMPTING to do something. IF the ace point game is going to be well timed AAND gammons dont matter.  Id rather play in a way that negates that equity as much as possible.  Hell againstless savy opponenets and a little different match score.(ie when gammon matter)  I might SLOT the 7 point just to be able to come back and crush after Im hit.  Those moves cant be done when it would have been easy to just make the 7 point (or else it will smell like a trap).. knowing that... at different times you can also make a move when it SEEMS like a trap but your just getting extra advantage from a move because you think your opponentn will think that you are setting them up.  Ok thats  little of subject rambling but those situations DO exist sometimes.


Im gonna roll it out in Extreme Gammon and Ill let you know the results
roadkillbooks

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Basically, another statistical tie.  Getting the runner moving and making the bar point is best, but not by a statistically significant amount.  Either four-prime is just as good.


Anybody care to opine about why 10/7(2) 6/3(2) is so poor in comparison?  It looks to me like it should be about the same as the others....



    1. Rollout          21/15 10/7(2)                Eq.:  +0.546
       0.757 0.213 0.009 - 0.243 0.058 0.007 CL  +0.546 CF  +0.546
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          10/7(2) 8/5(2)               Eq.:  +0.542 ( -0.004)
       0.752 0.271 0.010 - 0.248 0.055 0.006 CL  +0.542 CF  +0.542
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          8/5(2) 6/3(2)                Eq.:  +0.539 ( -0.006)
       0.750 0.284 0.010 - 0.250 0.053 0.003 CL  +0.539 CF  +0.539
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    4. Rollout          21/15 6/3(2)                 Eq.:  +0.529 ( -0.016)
       0.748 0.212 0.010 - 0.252 0.056 0.005 CL  +0.529 CF  +0.529
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    5. Rollout          21/15 8/5(2)                 Eq.:  +0.527 ( -0.019)
       0.750 0.211 0.007 - 0.250 0.048 0.003 CL  +0.527 CF  +0.527
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    6. Rollout          10/7(2) 6/3(2)               Eq.:  +0.489 ( -0.057)
       0.725 0.280 0.011 - 0.275 0.068 0.004 CL  +0.489 CF  +0.489
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 872235963 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]