Game 6, move 11 : Forum 1-1

[diane]

Ok, we are back in the game - lets see what we can do.  As this is a double, it might take a bit of discussion - so it might run 2 days...

Forum, blue, to move 1-1

[I added as many options as I could be bothered - don't be hurt if yours isn't there, just make your case, ask, and I will add it... ]

3N05AACY14UAWA:8ImkACAAIAAA

[dorbel]

Spoiler

This looks fairly straightforward; enter, make the 5pt and the bar and I would go with that. At this score (gammon losses not very important), there may be a case for bar/23, 6/5(2) though. Of course the blot often gets pointed on, but if we then dance for a few rolls, we won't have to move forward on the other side, thus keeping our position ready for a shot later on when white's bearoff starts to get harder. You'll also get a direct shot after White's 5-4 next which is nice! The downside is that you may be on the bar while White clears his 8pt without leaving indirects and you may lose an extra bg or two. On the same lines bar/23, 24/23, 6/5 is interesting. The point of that play is to make it more difficult for White to clear the 8pt, but you also improve his timing as he then doesn't have to play sixes!
The fancy plays enter a murky area where it's hard to know whether what you are doing is slightly better or slightly worse than the benchmark simple play, so I will go for bar/24, 8/7, 6/5(2).

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

This looks fairly straightforward; enter, make the 5pt and the bar and I would go with that. At this score (gammon losses not very important), there may be a case for bar/23, 6/5(2) though.

Those were the two that i was torn between - I can see some merit for dancing to preserve timing here, and hope for something good during his bear off.  I cant see anything but crunching if we dont move to the 23, but am a bit afraid of getting stuck on the bar too long too.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Although we could move our runners up to the two-point, I think we want to stay on the one point. With the bar point open, I don't see the two point as offering an advantage, and we have better shot-hitting chances from the one.   Our timing looks pretty good so I don't think we want to split our backmen.

So, bar/24.  Where to take the other ones?

It looks reasonable to fill in the bar point and our five point. This gives us a 5-prime that's formidable right now and that  we can roll forward into our home board.

Bar/24, 8/7, 6/5(2)

Good chance there's something better for obscure technical reasons, but this looks good to me.

[close]

[ah_clem]

 As this is a double, it might take a bit of discussion ...

...or not.  Next?

[diane]

...or not.  Next?

Agree, it seems clear cut now...

[vikingblood80]

Spoiler

With the bar point open, I don't see the two point as offering an advantage, and we have better shot-hitting chances from the one.

[close]

Spoiler

I see one..it puts pressure to rkb clearing the 8 next turn (ok only 6-1 offers a shot while if we stay back it is 6-5)..I dont know if we have better hitting chances from the one than from the 2 but anyway the shots probabaly will occur later. If we choose to make the 2-point it will cost us 3 ones..and there is still the question what to do with the last on..surely slot the 5 with 6/5..anyway I'm not sure and would also have played your move..just something to discuss about it.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout.

BTW, I don't mind doing the rollouts, but don't want to be a rollout hog.  If anybody else wants to do ti, feel free.

Spoiler

Surprise!

Moving a checker to the 23 and making the 5 point is a slight favorite over our move, but not by enough to say it's actually better.  Other moves are .04 to .05 errors.


    1. Rollout          bar/23 24/23 8/7             Eq.:  -0.597
       0.232 0.015 0.001 - 0.768 0.530 0.013 CL  -0.597 CF  -0.597
      [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    2. Rollout          bar/24 8/7 6/5(2)            Eq.:  -0.601 ( -0.004)
       0.228 0.008 0.001 - 0.772 0.485 0.013 CL  -0.601 CF  -0.601
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          bar/24 13/12 8/7 6/5         Eq.:  -0.635 ( -0.039)
       0.213 0.005 0.001 - 0.787 0.487 0.015 CL  -0.635 CF  -0.635
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    4. Rollout          bar/24 13/12 6/5(2)          Eq.:  -0.635 ( -0.039)
       0.210 0.006 0.001 - 0.790 0.495 0.012 CL  -0.635 CF  -0.635
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    5. Rollout          bar/24 9/7 6/5               Eq.:  -0.638 ( -0.041)
       0.210 0.007 0.001 - 0.790 0.485 0.014 CL  -0.638 CF  -0.638
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    6. Rollout          bar/24 9/7 8/7               Eq.:  -0.644 ( -0.047)
       0.206 0.006 0.000 - 0.794 0.490 0.012 CL  -0.644 CF  -0.644
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    7. Rollout          bar/24 7/5 6/5               Eq.:  -0.644 ( -0.048)
       0.207 0.006 0.000 - 0.793 0.487 0.013 CL  -0.644 CF  -0.644
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    8. Rollout          bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5            Eq.:  -0.644 ( -0.048)
       0.210 0.006 0.000 - 0.790 0.491 0.016 CL  -0.644 CF  -0.644
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    9. Rollout          bar/24 13/11 8/7             Eq.:  -0.646 ( -0.050)
       0.207 0.005 0.000 - 0.793 0.484 0.014 CL  -0.646 CF  -0.646
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

   10. Rollout          bar/24 9/8 6/5(2)            Eq.:  -0.647 ( -0.050)
       0.204 0.008 0.001 - 0.796 0.487 0.012 CL  -0.647 CF  -0.647
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868459832 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

Hey, hog those rollouts, I don't see anyone else queuing up to do it - and we like seeing them 

[dorbel]

Yes but the rollout doesn't say what clem thinks that it says! In fact bar/23, 6/5(2) isn't even in the list. perhaps you need to do a 2-ply evaluation before you select the candidates for rollout.

[ah_clem]

Yes but the rollout doesn't say what clem thinks that it says! In fact bar/23, 6/5(2) isn't even in the list. perhaps you need to do a 2-ply evaluation before you select the candidates for rollout.

You are correct that I misstated the "best" move, and that the move as stated isn't on the list.  I'll have to revisit the evaluation and rollout.  Do you really think bar/23 6/5(2) is best?  It wasn't even in the top ten per the 1-ply 2-ply evaluation.

[ah_clem]

Two ply analysis - bar/23 6/5(2)   is 13th on the list.  So 2-ply wouldn't have helped (actually it's what I used before)


It does much better in the rollout, third best move overall a .028 error over bar/23 24/23 8/7  and a .024 error relative to the Forum move.  Not a bad choice at all.



    1. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 8/7 6/5(2)            Eq.:  -0.599
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/23 24/23 8/7             Eq.:  -0.622 ( -0.023)
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 13/12 6/5(2)          Eq.:  -0.631 ( -0.032)
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 13/12 8/7 6/5         Eq.:  -0.634 ( -0.035)
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 9/7 6/5               Eq.:  -0.636 ( -0.037)
    6. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 9/8 6/5(2)            Eq.:  -0.641 ( -0.042)
    7. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 8/7(2) 6/5            Eq.:  -0.641 ( -0.042)
    8. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 7/5 6/5               Eq.:  -0.645 ( -0.046)
    9. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 9/7 8/7               Eq.:  -0.646 ( -0.048)
   10. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 13/11 8/7             Eq.:  -0.651 ( -0.052)
   11. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 6/5(2) 4/3            Eq.:  -0.654 ( -0.055)
   12. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/24 13/12 9/7             Eq.:  -0.656 ( -0.057)
   13. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/23 6/5(2)                Eq.:  -0.657 ( -0.058)
       0.244 0.008 0.000 - 0.756 0.457 0.056
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]




     Rollout          bar/23 6/5(2)                Eq.:  -0.625
       0.219 0.007 0.000 - 0.781 0.591 0.013 CL  -0.625 CF  -0.625
      [0.003 0.001 0.000 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868719291 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]