Game 6, move 12 : Forum 6-2

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 6-2

drc5AADYtoUAOA:8AmrACAAIAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The main question is timing.  Do we keep a spare on the 24 so that we can hit and still hold the point, or do we run the spare and keep our board from crunching?  I think the latter is the more prudent play, but I suck at this timing thing.

24/16

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

It helps in these late bear in situations to "read the numbers", i.e. a quick scan through immediate problem rolls for the bear in player. Of course we spring one off the 24pt, but after 24/18 we play the 2 somewhere else, so that we guarantee a direct shot after White rolls 6-5, 6-4, 6-3, 5-4 or 5-3. It also prevents him from playing two checkers off the 8pt with 6-2, 5-2, 4-3, 4-2 and 3-2, which he would like to do. With the last three he now has to clear the 6pt out of order. Of course we have to give him pick and pass numbers, but we don't care much about those. 24/16 is probably a blunder and I would play 24/18, 13/11.

[close]

[stog]

the extra opportunities to hit - i have changed my vote -- not easy as the board seemed to stall but on reload - i could vote again.
worth the effort i hope. thx dorbel

[diane]

I am letting this run to the end, is case anyone else wants to think about it some more.

[adrian]

Leaving a blot on 18 is a must, otherwise our chances to get a shot if he rolls bad decrease. The candidate for 2 is obvious too. Dorbel is right again.

( I voted, move it on..    )

[diane]

It is so close, and I am sorely tempted to change my mind - anyone else?

[roadkillbooks]

Hey time is up.  Lets play.  If one person changes it will still be close.  Several hours ago it was close also. 

[ah_clem]

24 hours ago it looked like this was on the way to a "Next" so I started a rollout.  Since I've now seen bot results, I can't comment further until the vote closes, but rkb is right that time's up.  Unless it's tied, it's time to move.

[diane]

Yeah, dorbels thoughts came late - I originally only left it open for one day - thinking it would be a next, but it got interesting....but ok, point taken, I have locked the voting and will move it tomorrow [I dont have gnu or the right bits of software on this machine]

[ah_clem]

I have locked the voting and will move it tomorrow

rollout

Spoiler

Moving a backman to the  18 is the way to go.  Running it to the 16 is an error, almost as bad as shuffling the other checkers.

Why stop at the 18?  Well, if we're not hit and he doesn't leave a shot, it's about the same as running it to the 16.  If we're hit, we have great timing with our 5 point blockade - we could do a lot worse than sitting on the bar waiting for a shot.  If he leaves a shot, we have a direct shot rather than an indirect one.  Add it all up, and stopping on the 18 comes out in front, the other move is not so important.

I didn't give this idea much consideration - once you see it it's obvious, but I overlooked it.  Unfortunately, gnubg pointed it out to me instead of Dorbel so I couldn't change my vote. 



    1. Rollout          24/18 13/11                  Eq.:  -0.542
       0.253 0.012 0.001 - 0.747 0.509 0.008 CL  -0.542 CF  -0.542
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          24/18 9/7                    Eq.:  -0.565 ( -0.023)
       0.240 0.012 0.001 - 0.760 0.517 0.007 CL  -0.565 CF  -0.565
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          24/18 8/6                    Eq.:  -0.580 ( -0.038)
       0.237 0.010 0.000 - 0.763 0.520 0.011 CL  -0.580 CF  -0.580
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
 
    4. Rollout          24/16                        Eq.:  -0.653 ( -0.111)
       0.196 0.004 0.000 - 0.804 0.468 0.007 CL  -0.653 CF  -0.653
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    5. Rollout          13/11 9/3                    Eq.:  -0.665 ( -0.122)
       0.196 0.003 0.000 - 0.804 0.489 0.012 CL  -0.665 CF  -0.665
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
       
    6. Rollout          13/5                         Eq.:  -0.665 ( -0.123)
       0.196 0.004 0.001 - 0.804 0.488 0.013 CL  -0.665 CF  -0.665
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
   
    7. Rollout          13/7 9/7                     Eq.:  -0.668 ( -0.126)
       0.192 0.004 0.000 - 0.808 0.484 0.011 CL  -0.668 CF  -0.668
      [0.002 0.001 0.000 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 868459832 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[roadkillbooks]

I have been wantint to comment on this but I was obviously not going to while the voting was going on.  People keep saying "if the blot gets hit" assuming that I would even want to hit the blot.  The only numbers in which I would hit the blot are the numbers that I essentially HAVE to hit the blot. If its still there after next turn.  I wouldnt hit with pick and pass numbers like 51, 41, 31, 21.  Again gammons dont mean that much to me and I have a greater risk of being hit while moving in.  Now if backgammon are considered.. who knows.. I dont figure backgammon into my calculations until I down to bearing off my last half of the checkers OR coming around the board and picking up my 5th and 6th and maybe 4th blots.  I think it must be instinstive to want to move away from a direct shot because in this case I do not see any reason why not to leave the blot on the bar point.  Behind in the race maintain contact. Gammons dont matter. 

Forums baord is alreay powerful AND its not about to crack.
saludos,

roadkillbooks