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Game 7, move 4 : Forum 6-3

Started by diane, November 17, 2009, 05:40:11 PM

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diane

Forum, blue, to move 6-3...maybe a next - lets see

LM+MATDMboYBAw:UYm5ADAAIAAA
Never give up on the things that make you smile

ah_clem

Spoiler

I don't think we want to abandon the anchor.  
I don't think we want to abandon the midpoint.  

That leaves playing off the nine point.  I'm not at all sorry to see the nine point go, but it does make an unaesthetic stack on the 6.  I can't say I like it, but I'm going to hold my nose and vote for 9/6, 9/3
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ah_clem

Spoiler

Ok, I've taken a look at the vote and it appears I should re-evaluate my reluctance to abandon the midpoint. 

1) moving the two checkers down from the midpoint gives great prime making chances.  Four, count 'em, four builders observing the tasty four-point.

2) If we make a decent blockade, our runners can waltz forward with impunity, so no real need for a resting spot.

So, abandoning the midpoint is not the tragedy that a cursory analysis might produce.  I'm going to change my vote.  I didn't like playing off the nine in the first place.

I'll stand by my statement that we don't want to abandon the anchor.
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NIHILIST

What jagoff advocated we play the 4-4 the way we did ? The other play would have had us on cruise control.

Bob
Robert J Ebbeler

diane

I would say 'Me', but no one ever listens to me....so I am blameless... ;)    :laugh: :laugh:
Never give up on the things that make you smile

NIHILIST

Spoiler
On a more serious note, we really have 1 priority here..........short of rolling a mega-joker that allows us to run both from his 5 point...........and that is to make our 4 point.

When holding an advanced defensive anchor, such as opponent's 4 or 5 point, the midpoint becomes less valuable. The worst aspect of playing from the 9 point is that we overrun our 4 point with 1 checker, making our single, overarching objective more difficult to achieve.

When you consider these factors, playing off our 13 point becomes the obvious play.
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Bob
Robert J Ebbeler

roadkillbooks

The longer it takes to move on the higher the chances that my roll will be 6-3.  :laugh:

diane

Quote from: roadkillbooks on November 18, 2009, 05:26:03 PM
The longer it takes to move on the higher the chances that my roll will be 6-3.  :laugh:

:laugh: :laugh: Well, I am home now, and moving it on - so you will find out shortly what your roll is - maybe I will next it if the 6-3 comes up  ;)
Never give up on the things that make you smile

ah_clem

Quote from: diane on November 18, 2009, 07:15:37 PM
:laugh: :laugh: Well, I am home now, and moving it on - so you will find out shortly what your roll is - maybe I will next it if the 6-3 comes up  ;)

Nah.  If 6-3 comes up you should let me move for him.

ah_clem

#9
rollout



Spoiler


Not even close. Diane was right about he next, although it wasn't obvious to me at first.



   1. Rollout          13/10 13/7                   Eq.:  +0.491
      0.746 0.386 0.054 - 0.254 0.064 0.006 CL  +0.491 CF  +0.491
     [0.002 0.007 0.004 - 0.002 0.004 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
     
   2. Rollout          13/4                         Eq.:  +0.407 ( -0.085)
      0.703 0.336 0.083 - 0.297 0.100 0.006 CL  +0.407 CF  +0.407
     [0.002 0.006 0.005 - 0.002 0.004 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
     
   3. Rollout          13/7 9/6                     Eq.:  +0.404 ( -0.087)
      0.702 0.330 0.057 - 0.298 0.086 0.006 CL  +0.404 CF  +0.404
     [0.002 0.006 0.004 - 0.002 0.004 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
     
   4. Rollout          9/6 9/3                      Eq.:  +0.367 ( -0.125)
      0.683 0.325 0.036 - 0.317 0.086 0.004 CL  +0.367 CF  +0.367
     [0.002 0.006 0.003 - 0.002 0.004 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
       
   5. Rollout          13/7 6/3                     Eq.:  +0.366 ( -0.126)
      0.683 0.339 0.051 - 0.317 0.092 0.009 CL  +0.366 CF  +0.366
     [0.002 0.007 0.004 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
     
   6. Rollout          13/10 9/3                    Eq.:  +0.358 ( -0.134)
      0.679 0.332 0.059 - 0.321 0.102 0.012 CL  +0.358 CF  +0.358
     [0.002 0.006 0.004 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
     
   7. Rollout          20/11                        Eq.:  +0.312 ( -0.180)
      0.656 0.329 0.098 - 0.344 0.134 0.011 CL  +0.312 CF  +0.312
     [0.002 0.007 0.005 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
       
   8. Rollout          9/3 6/3                      Eq.:  +0.254 ( -0.238)
      0.627 0.310 0.040 - 0.373 0.113 0.011 CL  +0.254 CF  +0.254
     [0.002 0.006 0.004 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841902667 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]


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