Game 2 Move 3 Forum Take?

[ah_clem]

We finally get to make a decision here.  Take or pass.  

Spoiler

The score (after 1 game) is: Schigolch 0, Forum 1 (match to 5 points)
Match Information:
O doubles to 2

GNU Backgammon  Position ID: 4PPgAVBmTvAAMQ
                Match ID   : MBmgAAAACAAA
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     O: Schigolch
| X           O    |   | O     O     O  X |     0 points
| X                |   | O     O     O    |    
| X                |   | O                |    
| X                |   |                  |    
|                  |   |                  |    
^|                  |BAR|                  |    
|                  |   | X                |    
| O           X    |   | X                |    
| O           X    |   | X                |    
| O           X    |   | X              O | Cube offered at 2
| O           X    | X | X     O        O |     1 point
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     X: Forum
Pip counts: O 159, X 163

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[ah_clem]

Since I haven't figured out how to run the match in gnubg without seeing the bot results,  I can't comment on the wisdom (or lack thereof) of accepting the cube.  But surely someone can offer an opinion.

And if anybody has some tips for running gnubg without having it move automatically and display evaluations I'm all ears.  Thanks.

[stog]

change the players to "human" - then the 'roll' command (in tutor mode shows the plays) click hint when u need to know the available plays for  the polls)

[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

I think this is a trial take.  We have one on the bar and one on the one point.  There are no other blots on the board.  While we are obviously an underdog here this is not overwhelming. I know the 55 blitz equities pretty well and when there is one piece on the bar and the other on the 2 point.. it is not even really a double (of course since some people will drop, it is) here we have brought another piece down from our mid point and Schigolgh has 3 pieces back.  Il play this as a drop vs take prop any day of the week. TAKE

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Agree with rkb. This is a standard take, especially because Schigolch has three checkers far behind. But I personally hate playing these because, I hate being gammoned. But I think double is correct here also. Gammons have extra value here, winning one takes to crawford game. If the score would be 1-1, then this would be very difficult choice for me. Propably take still, but I would pass it.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

My initial impression was that this was a clear double, but it's closer than I thought.

I also thought it was a pass - We have basically nothing going for us - no board, no builders, just a couple of stacks with a checker on the bar facing a 3 point board.  But, the thing is, Schig also has not much going either, other than the scattered three point board.  In particular, he only has one builder so he can't sweep in for a blitz.  If we can anchor, it looks relatively even.  That makes it close enough to take.

Well, more than just "close enough".  Passing is a triple whopper.



Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.436 (Money:  +0.375)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.674
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.326)
3. No double            +0.607  ( -0.067)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
 0.607 0.257 0.010 - 0.393 0.097 0.009 CL  +0.436 CF  +0.607
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]
Player Forum owns 2-cube:
 0.613 0.261 0.009 - 0.387 0.109 0.014 CL  +0.997 CF  +0.674
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.015 CF   0.021]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 842623946 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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