Earth Watch, Climate Wars & an ozone map from 1979-2008

[Zorba]

These episodes of Bob's Global Warming Skepticism are brought to you by Exxon, General Motors and the Car Salesmen Union
I'm sorry, do you actually have any facts that are not lies?

Accusations are easy to make. So far however, all your accusations lack any evidence and are based on hearsay. Most of what you post here I already debunked in my earlier reply, I suggest you read up on the subject through a credible source, rather than rely on political blogs and talk radio for your "information".

Here's what REALLY happened:

The report submitted by the Institute of Physics expresses concern about the CRU's scientific integrity.[37]  According to this report, the emails reveal evidence of "determined and coordinated refusals" to comply with scientific traditions through "manipulation of the publication and peer-review system" and "intolerance to challenge".[38]  This report was used by climate sceptics to bolster claims that the problem of global warming is exaggerated. This forced the Institute of Physics to confirm that its position was that "the basic science is well enough understood to be sure that our climate is changing, and that we need to take action now to mitigate that change."[39]  Many experts considered that the correction was still inadequate, with climatologist Andy Russell describing the allegation of data suppression as "incorrect and irresponsible". The institute said that the statement had been prepared by their energy subcommittee, but would not reveal who had produced it. It did say that the subcommittee included an IOP official named Peter Gill, whose company provides services to the energy industry[/i][/b]

Yes, the jig is up for Peter Gill, just as the jig was up for all those cancer skeptics in the eighties, who didn't believe (passive) smoking caused lung cancer. Just like NIHo, they also produced random quotes ("my uncle smoked every day and lived into his nineties") and so-called scientific research, or claims of discrediting evidence, despite the scientific consensus about the subject. Are we really surprised this operation was all funded by tobacco companies, as a class-act lawsuit revealed many years later? Some people never learn from history, it seems.

I'll give you one free lesson on climatology, the rest you'll have to look up yourself. Climate is not measured on a per year basis, nor does global warming mean or predict that every year will be hotter than the previous one. Climate is not even measured on a 15 year basis. A common standard is to use a 30 year period. This is done to reduce the effects of short(er) term fluctuations, such as the irregular El Nino/La Nina cycle and the solar activity cycle. Looking at the 30-year moving average, we're definitely still on the rise in global temperature, and it's a steep slope.

These episodes of Bob's Global Warming Skepticism are brought to you by Exxon, General Motors and the Car Salesmen Union

[NIHILIST]

You still haven't dealt with the fact that the scientist in charge of gathering all the data that AGW is premised on has admitted theres been NO GLOBAL WARMING IN FIFTEEN YEARS. If you took his word for all these years, why don't you accept it now ?

Why haven't the multitude of scientists out there come forward to refute Dr Jones ? The reason they can't is that they've relied on his admittedly rigged data.

BTW, you and Professor Dorbel need to get your stories straight.........he agrees with me that Antarctic ice is INCREASING.


Bob

[NIHILIST]

New reports from the Australian Antarctic Division Glaciology Program indicates that ice is expanding in most of Antarctica. The area designated as Western Antarctica is seeing some ice loss. The area known as the Eastern Antarctica is seeing ice expansion.

Eastern Antarctica is four times the size of Western Antarctica. The increasing ice in the Eastern portion of the continent has "more than offset" the ice losses in West Antarctica, according to Dr. Ian Allison of the Australian Antarctic Division. "Sea ice conditions have remained stable in Antarctica," said Allison. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research told a meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations last week that the South Pole had shown "significant cooling in recent decades."

Not heard on Australian talk radio.

Bob

[ah_clem]

So how did I know that as soon as shouts went down this board would be inundated with the usual misinformation re climate change that bores everyone to tears on shouts?

[NIHILIST]

Because your intuition is as finely honed as your backgammon skills.

Bob

[diane]

Looking at the 30-year moving average, we're definitely still on the rise in global temperature, and it's a steep slope.

Yes 30 years is definitely representative of a planet 4.54 billion years old....

It will cycle, it will change and you cant measure any of that over 30 years, or a 100 years, or a 1000 years - so to cite evidence like that will just cause endless cyclic debate and give everyone planet sized loop holes to wiggle out of.

The facts are: we need an ozone layer for our species to survive, lots of things that we produce react with and remove ozone - is it therefore wise to keep pumping them into the atmosphere if we can do something else??

In each case, lets assess it on the facts - do we know this is interfering with something we need? Can we do something else? Then lets do that - and maybe we will give our species a better chance for longer.

I love the argument that nuclear power is the cleanest energy source we can use...and if you look only at certain facts...it is.  The problem is we don't look at the big picture, we always look at the most profitable option, not all the costs incurred further down the line that we can shuffle to somewhere else..

[Zorba]

You still haven't dealt with the fact that the scientist in charge of gathering all the data that AGW is premised on has admitted theres been NO GLOBAL WARMING IN FIFTEEN YEARS. If you took his word for all these years, why don't you accept it now ?

I gave you a free lesson in climatology above. Go read it.

[Zorba]

Yes 30 years is definitely representative of a planet 4.54 billion years old....

Do you know what a "moving average" is? The idea is you compare the global temperature from 1979-2009 to 1978-2008, 1977-2007, etc. It's not even supposed to represent the entire history of the earth's temperature, quite the opposite in fact. You just compare different periods of 30 year to each other, and by doing this, we can measure climate change.

It will cycle, it will change and you cant measure any of that over 30 years, or a 100 years, or a 1000 years - so to cite evidence like that will just cause endless cyclic debate and give everyone planet sized loop holes to wiggle out of.

Actually you can measure this, and this is exactly what's being done and what has informed us about global warming in the first place. A picture says more than a thousand words:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nasa-giss_1880-2009_global_temperature.svg

[diane]

I know exactly what a moving average is, what it can tell you, and what its limitations are. We use them in production all the time. It can very accurately tell how a process a few years old is changing - it can't tell you anything about what came before you started measuring though.

I like the 1880 - 2000 graph - very pretty.  Is it useful in terms of what we NEED to prove to a world who would watch a treasured possession burn, arguing over whether to put it out with water or foam? And which is cheapest... I think not.

My concern is that we do not, as a species, act, we procrastinate. And stats give you all the procrastination time in the universe.  Work with knowns, do REAL risk assessments - and if the outcome is EVER 'catastrophic', or 'terminal to life as we know it', then even if the likelihood is 'rare' or 'improbable', it still requires that we act on it.

[Zorba]

New reports from the Australian Antarctic Division Glaciology Program indicates that ice is expanding in most of Antarctica. The area designated as Western Antarctica is seeing some ice loss. The area known as the Eastern Antarctica is seeing ice expansion.

Eastern Antarctica is four times the size of Western Antarctica. The increasing ice in the Eastern portion of the continent has "more than offset" the ice losses in West Antarctica, according to Dr. Ian Allison of the Australian Antarctic Division. "Sea ice conditions have remained stable in Antarctica," said Allison. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research told a meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations last week that the South Pole had shown "significant cooling in recent decades."

Just in case you hadn't spotted the red herring this journalist produces above: The South Pole is not the Antarctic Continent, but a very small part of it. As you can read in the original reports, the continent as a whole is warming up.

It's good you mention the SCAR. Here's what they really write; original sources, not the mangled hearsay from under-educated journalists you always produce.


Temperatures reconstructed from ice cores show large inter-annual to decadal variability,
with the dominant pattern being anti-phase anomalies between the continent and the
peninsula, which is the classic signature of the SAM. The reconstruction suggests that
Antarctic temperatures increased on average by about 0.2°C since the late nineteenth
century.


and

The Antarctic ozone hole
27. Stratospheric ozone levels began to decline in the 1970s, following widespread releases of
CFCs and halons into the atmosphere that destroyed virtually all ozone between heights of
14 and 22 km over Antarctica. Owing to the success of the Montreal Protocol, the
amounts of ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere are now decreasing by about
1% per year. As a result the size and depth of the ozone hole have stabilised; neither are
yet reducing.

and

30. Ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula have changed rapidly in recent decades. Warming has
caused retreat of ice shelves on both sides of the Peninsula. Loss of ice on the eastern side
results from warm air being brought over the Peninsula by the stronger westerlies forced
by changes in the SAM, driven ultimately by the development of the ozone hole. Ice-shelf
retreat results from increased fracturing via melt-water infilling of pre-existing crevasses,
and the penetration of warm ocean masses beneath ice shelves. Removal of ice shelves
has led to the speeding up of glacier flow from inland.
31. Some formerly snow- and ice-covered islands are now increasingly snow-free during the
summer. Glaciers on Heard Island reduced by 11% since the 1940s, and several coastal
lagoons have formed there. On South Georgia, 28 of 36 surveyed glaciers are retreating, 2
are advancing, and 6 are stable. On Signy Island ice cover has reduced by around 40%.
32. Of the 244 marine glaciers that drain the ice sheet and associated islands of the Antarctic
Peninsula, 212 (87%) have shown overall retreat since 1953. The other 32 glaciers have
shown small advances.

Yeah I could go on and on like this.

[jackdaddy]

So how did I know that as soon as shouts went down this board would be inundated with the usual misinformation re climate change that bores everyone to tears on shouts?

The nice thing clem, is it's easier to ignore here...   

[NIHILIST]

What part of Eastern Antarctica is four times the size of Western Antarctica. The increasing ice in the Eastern portion of the continent has "more than offset" the ice losses in West Antarctica, according to Dr. Ian Allison of the Australian Antarctic Division don't you understand ?

To, once again, return to the irrefutable part of the saga, the guy who robbed the bank has confessed. There's no way around that. And the only one trying to come to his rescue is you.

The poor guy's career is in ruins, he's admitted to thoughts of suicide, he couldn't be questioned too vigorously by Parliament because he appeared on the edge of a nervous breakdown, and, as a "scientist", he's not fit to clean the crap from the guinea pig cages.

His actions have destroyed any credibility he and the AGW movement might have had. I hope it was worth it to him.

Bob

[stog]

a letter...

[Zorba]

What part of Eastern Antarctica is four times the size of Western Antarctica. The increasing ice in the Eastern portion of the continent has "more than offset" the ice losses in West Antarctica, according to Dr. Ian Allison of the Australian Antarctic Division don't you understand ?

You quote exactly three words here, out of context. The rest is some journalist's write-up, apparently. I'd like you to show me the data of these ice increases and losses: that's science; you're just posting journalist's impressions here.

To, once again, return to the irrefutable part of the saga, the guy who robbed the bank has confessed.

Confessed to what? And what does "robbing the bank" mean? The sentence above has zero factual, let alone scientific, content.

The poor guy's career is in ruins,

Really? Source?

His actions have destroyed any credibility he and the AGW movement might have had. I hope it was worth it to him.

As far as there is any AGW movement, that's a political thing and an entirely different subject.

The AGW theory we were discussing here is not a movement, it's just the scientifical consensus following tons of independent research by thousands of scientists all over the world.

There is a evangelicalish Global Warming Skeptics movement though, of which you seem to be a member. Driven by emotions, manipulations, outright lies, paranoia even, and political or even religious agendas, and not based on any scientific evidence. Their only method to pretend knowledge is to cherry-pick quotes out of context and make suggestive statemements, similar to what Creationists or the Intelligent Design movement do.


When it comes to Mr. Mann, his credibility is still pretty good with most people, and the whole hacking incident has not produced any evidence against the AGW theory, regardless of your wishful thinking and your own complete lack of credibility on this subject. Nearly the entire scientific community and many national governments have released statements to that effect.

[diane]

I am Zorba and Nihi are taking this on so seriously...maybe now something will finally get done...or will they just argue/debate for the next 16 years and fail to agree?

Still, as long as they cant agree on what needs to be done - we can carry on just as we are, over here, and close the doors so their discussion doesn't trouble us too much.

[stog]

UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF THE RIGHTS OF MOTHER EARTH

[draft February 2010]

Spoiler

Preamble

We, the peoples of Earth:

gratefully acknowledging that Mother Earth gives us life, nourishes and teaches us and provides us with all that we need to live well;

recognizing that Mother Earth is an indivisible community of diverse and interdependent beings with whom we share a common destiny and to whom we must relate in ways that benefit Mother Earth;acknowledging that by attempting to dominate and exploit Mother Earth and other beings, humans have caused severe destruction, degradation and disruption of the life-sustaining communities, processes and balances of Mother Earth which now threatens the wellbeing and existence of many beings;

conscious that this destruction is also harmful to our inner wellbeing and is offensive to the many faiths, wisdom traditions and indigenous cultures for whom Mother Earth is sacred;

acutely conscious of the critical importance and urgency of taking decisive, collective action to prevent humans causing climate change and other impacts on Mother Earth that threaten the wellbeing and survival of humans and other beings;

accepting our responsibility to one another, future generations and Mother Earth to heal the damage caused by humans and to pass on to future generations values, traditions, and institutions that support the flourishing of Mother Earth;

convinced that in order for communities of humans and other beings to flourish we must establish systems for governing human behavior that recognize the inalienable rights of Mother Earth and of all beings that are part of her;

convinced that the fundamental freedoms and rights of Mother Earth and of all beings should be protected by the rule of law, and that the corresponding duties of human beings to respect and defend these rights and freedoms should be enforced by law;

proclaim this Universal Declaration of the Rights of Mother Earth to complement the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and to serve as a common standard by which the conduct of all human beings, organizations, and cultures can be guided and assessed; and

pledge ourselves to cooperate with other human communities, public and private organizations, governments, and the United Nations, to secure the universal and effective recognition and observance of the fundamental freedoms, rights and duties enshrined in this Declaration, among all the peoples, cultures and states of Earth.

Article 1.           Fundamental rights, freedoms and duties

(1)   Mother Earth is an indivisible, self-regulating community of interrelated beings each of whom is defined by its relationships within this community and with the Universe as a whole. Fundamental aspects of these relationships are expressed in this Declaration as inalienable rights, freedoms and duties.

(2)   These fundamental rights, freedoms and duties arise from the same source as existence and are inherent to all beings, consequently they are inalienable, cannot be abolished by law, and are not affected by the political, jurisdictional or international status of the country or territory within which a being exists.

(3)   All beings are entitled to all the fundamental rights and freedoms recognized in this Declaration without distinction of any kind, such as may be made between organic, living beings and inorganic, non-living beings, or on the basis of sentience, kind, species, use to humans, or other status.

(4)   Just as human beings have human rights, other beings may also have additional rights, freedoms and duties that are specific to their species or kind and appropriate for their role and function within the communities within which they exist.

(5)   The rights of each being are limited by the rights of other beings to the extent necessary to maintain the integrity, balance and health of the communities within which it exists.

Article 2.           Fundamental rights of Mother Earth

Mother Earth has the right to exist, to persist and to continue the vital cycles, structures, functions and processes that sustain all beings.

Article 3.           Fundamental rights and freedoms of all beings

Every being has:

(a)   the right to exist;

(b)   the right to habitat or a place to be;

(c)   the right to participate in accordance with its nature in the ever-renewing processes of Mother Earth;

(d)   the right to maintain its identity and integrity as a distinct, self-regulating being;

(e)   the right to be free from pollution, genetic contamination and human modifications of its structure or functioning that threaten its integrity or healthy functioning; and

(f)     the freedom to relate to other beings and to participate in communities of beings in accordance with its nature.

Article 4.           Freedom of animals from torture and cruelty

Every animal has the right to live free from torture, cruel treatment or punishment by human beings.

Article 5.           Freedom of animals from confinement and removal from habitat

(1)   No human being has the right to confine another animal or to remove it from its habitat unless doing so is justifiable with reference to the respective rights, duties and freedoms of both the human and other animal concerned.

(2)   Any human being that confines or keeps another animal must ensure that it is free to express normal patterns of behavior, has adequate nourishment and is protected from injury, disease, suffering and unreasonable fear, pain, distress or discomfort.

Article 6.           Fundamental duties of human beings

Human beings have a special responsibility to avoid acting in violation of this Declaration and must urgently establish values, cultures, and legal, political, economic and social systems consistent with this Declaration that:

(a)   promote the full recognition, application and enforcement of the freedoms, rights and duties set out in this Declaration;

(b)   ensure that the pursuit of human wellbeing contributes to the wellbeing of Mother Earth, now and in the future;

(c)   prevent humans from causing harmful disruptions of vital ecological cycles, processes and balances, and from compromising the genetic viability and continued survival of other species;

(d)   ensure that the damage caused by human violations of the freedoms, rights and duties in this Declaration is rectified where possible and that those responsible are held accountable for restoring the integrity and healthy functioning of affected communities; and

(e)   enable people to defend the rights of Mother Earth and of all beings.

Article 7.           Protection of the law

Every being has –

(a)   the right to be recognised everywhere as a subject before the law;

(b)   the right to the protection of the law and to an effective remedy in respect of human violations or attacks on the rights and freedoms recognized in this Declaration;

(c)   the right to equal protection of the law; and

(d)   the right to equal protection against any discrimination by humans in violation of this Declaration and against any incitement to such discrimination.

Article 8.           Human education

(1)   Every human being has the right to be educated about Mother Earth and how to live in accordance with this Declaration.

(2)   Human education must develop the full potential of human beings in a way that promotes a love of Mother Earth, compassion, understanding, tolerance and affection among all humans and between humans and other beings, and the observance of the fundamental freedoms, rights and duties in this Declaration.

Article 9.           Interpretation

(1)   The term "being" refers to natural beings which exist as part of Mother Earth and includes a community of other beings and all human beings regardless of whether or not they act as a corporate body, state or other legal person.

(2)   Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State, group or person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act aimed at the destruction of any of the rights and freedoms in it.

(3)   Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as restricting the recognition of other fundamental rights, freedoms or duties of all or specified beings.

[close]

DRAFT UNIVERSAL DECLARATION OF THE RIGHTS OF MOTHER EARTH
http://pwccc.wordpress.com/2010/02/07/draft-universal-declaration-of-the-rights-of-mother-earth-2/


see also
Earth spirits' twin visions on climate
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/

[stog]

Worldwatch recently issued it's "Vital Signs" report for 2007-2008, including a set of "Vital Facts."

http://www.worldwatch.org/vs2007

Word Salad

          Read the text below out loud, going as fast as you can.

    I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulacitly mkae out waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid! Aoccdrnig to a rsceeeacrhr at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but olny the wrod as a whlohe. It mkaes up waht the ohetr lerttees are. In the smae way, the huamn mnid mkeas up mnaegnig form the fgemratns of ifmaonitron it cllocets, and tihs tehn becmoes its peceporitn of tutrh. We mkae up in our haeds waht we see and prevecie, our mnaegnig of tnighs. And tehn we dnot uesdnatnrd why ohetr ppoele do not prevecie tnighs the smae way we do.

    Aimd goirnwg edinevce taht smoe of the tinsiet maraleits eevr ergeinened psoe petillontay big emovinertnel, hlateh and setafy rskis, menomutm is bindiulg in Cesgrons, in emovinertnel crelcis and in the irtundsy isetlf to beef up faredel orvishegt of the new maraleits, wchih are arealdy sowhnig up in deznos of cemunosr podcurts.

Think About

    *
      What struck you most while you were doing this exercise?
    *
      What does it suggest regarding the internal human thought process?

Copyright 2006 The Trouser Rollers. All Rights Reserved.
www.callipygia600.com

[stog]

Europe debates climate 'ambition

[stog]

Created with 20,000 photographs and a haunting soundtrack, Airsick plays out like an unsettling dream. Photographer Lucas Oleniuk examines our addiction to fossil fuel - and its consequences. See the project at http://mediastorm.com/publication/airsick

[PersianLord]

The adverse effects of the industrial society on climate & environment is quite well known. But the real question is this: how we can SOLVE the problem?

As far as I see, all the solutions proposed so far have been of a rather temporary nature, repeatedly failing to provide a meaningful solution and often-times leading to even more adverse side-effects. I think as far as the basic driver of the modern economy is based on 'saturating consumption', there will be always room to abuse the mother-nature. So, a basic solution must include a structural modification in the economic model of the modern society. (I have a copy of T.K's book on the destructive effects of the industrial society and am willing to give it to anyone interested. Just drop me a line and I'll e-mail it to you)

Another problem contributing to the escalation of the climatic malady is the issue of 'over-population' of our beloved planet. I blame modern medicine and vaccination for this problem. Not only modern medical science has let the human population to literally 'explode', (and you know that a good proportion of this new people are weaklings who'd have been wiped out if we had let the mother-nature to do her job properly) but it also has started a survival war with the micro bio-organisms that we have NO chance to win. Face it; we really can't out-power the bacteria and virus with our dysfunctional drug industry, as they have a tremendous capacity to cope and adapt genetically with the antibiotics and other medic tools. New strings of flu that are resistant to drugs AND inflict MORE damage & pain to the human body is a clear proof to this claim. (alongside with hundreds of mysterious new diseases appearing here and there.) So, I think that in this regard, we should cut this bullshit a break and return to the 'natural' way of life we've been genetically programmed to live.

Regards,

PL