Game 2 Move 7 Forum to play 4-3

[ah_clem]

Y2Zw4QCY5+ADEA : Y2Zw4QCY5+ADEA

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Spoiler

23/20 8/4
i think instead of 23/20 8/5?

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Lot's of options here and nothing that's really obvious like hitting or making a point.

Given Schig's lack of builders and the closeness of the pipcount, moving the runner up seems like the most thematic move. But not all the way to expose it to a double shot in the outfield.  So the three is played 23/20.  where to play the four?

Slotting the nine seems unnecessarily risky,  so that narrows  the choice to slotting our two point or putting a spare on the four.  Slotting the two is the more flexible play since it unstacks the six point and leaves a spare on the 8.  On the negative side, it provides counterplay should Schig hit loose. That said, stacking the four seems timid, so I'm going to opt for slotting the two.


23/20 6/2

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[ah_clem]

23/20 8/4 ... instead of 23/20 8/5?

Fixed.  Sorry about that.

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Our plan is running, so to me there is two choices. Run now or later. Slotting two checkers to homeboard would give free hands to hit loose our blot and would also create major gammon risks after exchange of hits. Slotting to 9-point would risk losing pips, which is counterproductive to our running plan. Also making half run doesn't convince me. I never ever make these half runs with single checker to 5- or 4-point. It will give practically free hit and slot for opponent, which could be enough to contain our checker for the rest of the game. If opponent hits loose to 2-point, this won't have same kind of devastating effect. Only against clear prime I might consider this kind of "European split" to dangerous 5-point. So that leaves waiting move 13/6 or running 23/16.

The running just looks also too risky. It will give perfect double shot and we are not in immediate danger so that we would be forced to take this kind of risks. Also even if our gamble pays off, we aren't enough ahead in pips to get the full reward from it. Often It is best to keep the lone runner far from danger on low points.  And I believe that is the case here too. Besides being safe it will also control the opponent's homeboard and outfield and make movement for our opponent more difficult. For example, here several rolls would leave indirect shot for our lone runner to hit. So I would just play 13/6 and hope either lucky shot or better running move on the future rolls. The problem with this waiting strategy is, of cource, that we can't wait too long. When it starts to look like that we are about to be primed, then any running move would be good enough.

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[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

moving up to the 20 creates a situation were where schig would like to hit us there.. with 8s and 9's on top of the 4. Thats not the case with the 2 point.  Id love to slot our 5 point but the 4 is an issue.  Often i may do the double slot but prob againt someone that i think may not know how to play a perfect blitz and/or a diferent match score/cube position.  Playing 13/6 has the passive advantage of getting us closer to getting off gammon when the worst arises.  Running now will pin us down to an "escape or die" situation where we would be down significantly already in the race. 13/6 for me but i would not block the double slot as its my kind of play.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If we stay on the 23, the only way for him to hit us is with a 6.  There are 17 ways to roll a six.

If we move up to the 20, he has 3's to hit (14 rolls) plus 6-2 4-4 and 5-4.  I count 19 rolls that hit.  That's not much more risky than sitting on the 23.  It takes doubles to hit and cover, but there are 3 doubles (22 33 66) that hit and cover on the 23* while only 33 or 44 does it to a blot on the 20.  I'd say the risk is about the same regardless of which point we're on.  


The main difference is that most hits are loose and sloting the 20 is better  for Schig.  But my take is that the increased chances of escaping when we're not hit is worth letting him have the better slot.

I may be all wet here, but this time I'm sticking with my move (although i could be persuaded to switch to 8/4 for the 3)   I hate stacking the six point.

*44 hits and covers too, but I'm not sure he'd give up his 6-point to hit us.

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[stog]

Spoiler

i've just added the remove vote option mr clem and then put it to use!!

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[ah_clem]

i've just added the remove vote option mr clem

It looks like a side effect of altering the poll options is to extend the deadline.  Right now the poll says it closes December 09, 2009, 06:35:23 AM (EST)  - that's 10:25 UTC.

I'm still planning on shutting it down at the original deadline - ~1300 EST / 1700 UTC today.  Git yer votes in by then, or be SOL.  (c:

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The safe candlestick making play is best here. 

These are the kind of moves you learn not to make when trying to go from "awful" to "beginner". As I struggle to go from "beginner" to "intermediate" I'll have to learn how (or more precisely when) to make them again.

23/20 8/4 is second at a .04 error.  My move is next at .05. 



    1. Rollout          13/6                         Eq.:  +0.137
       0.503 0.110 0.009 - 0.497 0.120 0.002 CL  -0.060 CF  +0.137
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    2. Rollout          23/20 8/4                    Eq.:  +0.099 ( -0.038)
       0.500 0.111 0.005 - 0.500 0.145 0.002 CL  -0.108 CF  +0.099
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    3. Rollout          23/20 6/2                    Eq.:  +0.085 ( -0.052)
       0.496 0.116 0.008 - 0.504 0.149 0.003 CL  -0.116 CF  +0.085
      [0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    4. Rollout          8/5 6/2                      Eq.:  +0.070 ( -0.068)
       0.485 0.111 0.010 - 0.515 0.144 0.004 CL  -0.113 CF  +0.070
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    5. Rollout          8/4 6/3                      Eq.:  +0.061 ( -0.077)
       0.487 0.105 0.008 - 0.513 0.139 0.002 CL  -0.127 CF  +0.061
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    6. Rollout          13/9 8/5                     Eq.:  +0.052 ( -0.085)
       0.479 0.124 0.013 - 0.521 0.157 0.004 CL  -0.130 CF  +0.052
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    7. Rollout          23/20 13/9                   Eq.:  +0.046 ( -0.091)
       0.485 0.121 0.009 - 0.515 0.158 0.002 CL  -0.147 CF  +0.046
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.009]

    8. Rollout          13/9 6/3                     Eq.:  +0.008 ( -0.129)
       0.471 0.120 0.011 - 0.529 0.159 0.003 CL  -0.156 CF  +0.008
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.009]

    9. Rollout          6/3 6/2                      Eq.:  -0.006 ( -0.143)
       0.471 0.108 0.006 - 0.529 0.162 0.002 CL  -0.189 CF  -0.006
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 842623946 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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[blitzxz]

Here is a good article about basics of the European Split by Kit Woolsey. When to make half run and when not to.

http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Mar02/europe.htm