Game 2 Move 13 Forum to move 5-2

[ah_clem]

5-2 to play.

Voting closes Wednesday Dec 16th noon EST / 1600 UTC

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Running the backman exposes it to a double shot - Even if he misses, he's still ahead in the race. Seems like a recipe to lose.

Moving two checkers off the midpoint isn't bad, and we'll probably have to do it before very long, but the midpoint is still worth something, so let's hang on to it for now.

The blot on the eight is doing nothing for us, so lets move that.  This gives us the choice of slotting the two, slotting the one, or no slot (8/3 6/4)

The two is a better point than the one, but slotting the one gives us three builders instead of two. hmmmm....  And any slot gives Schig more incentive to hit loose.

My first inclination was no slot, but upon further reflection that seems too timid.  A five point home board will give him something to think about and we can't depend on getting lucky and making another point without slotting it first.

So, which slot?  The thematic play is to slot the two, and I'll go with that. This play leaves 4 and 1 to cover, which are useless numbers for escaping the runner.

8/3 4/2

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

13/8, 13/11 is a horrible play, releasing pressure on Red's midpoint and taking away a safe landing point for our straggler if we decide to run it. That might be a price worth paying if the play had any pluses, but it doesn't.
Running into a double shot in a race where we trail is also very bad.
8/3, 6/4 is the play for people who don't like to slot because, "If we get hit we don't want a blot inboard." For that to matter we have to be hit, hit back with a number that doesn't cover and then be hit from the bar, after which Red has a man behind a 4 prime. As Red isn't going to hit this turn anyway, who cares?
I would play 8/3, 4/2 over the board, but I suspect that this is a case for the ultra aggressive 6/1, 4/2, not an alternate we have been offered!

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[stog]

Spoiler

i would happily switch to 6/1 4/2

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

13/8, 13/11 is a horrible play, releasing pressure on Red's midpoint and taking away a safe landing point for our straggler if we decide to run it. That might be a price worth paying if the play had any pluses, but it doesn't.
Running into a double shot in a race where we trail is also very bad.
8/3, 6/4 is the play for people who don't like to slot because, "If we get hit we don't want a blot inboard." For that to matter we have to be hit, hit back with a number that doesn't cover and then be hit from the bar, after which Red has a man behind a 4 prime. As Red isn't going to hit this turn anyway, who cares?
I would play 8/3, 4/2 over the board, but I suspect that this is a case for the ultra aggressive 6/1, 4/2, not an alternate we have been offered!

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Ask and ye shall receive.

[diane]

Spoiler

And there was me thinking I was dumb, being the only one who picked 6/1, 4/2 

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[socksey]

Spoiler

And there was me thinking I was dumb, being the only one who picked 6/1, 4/2 

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I'm biting my tongue!   

socksey



"I wouldn't say she is open-minded on the MIddle East, so much as empty-headed.  She probably thinks Sinai is the plural of sinus." - Janathan Aitken on Margaret Thatcher.

[DanPelton]

I'd rather keep the man on the 8 pt saving a 6

I'm not sure how to use spoilers yet, hope this doesn't mess anybody up.  Can anybody point me in the right direction on spoilers?

[ah_clem]

I'm not sure how to use spoilers yet, hope this doesn't mess anybody up.  Can anybody point me in the right direction on spoilers?

Highlight your super-secret text and click on the icon.  Instant spoiler tag.

Welcome to the team.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I think Dorbel makes a good point about slotting two points since it's unlikely Schigolch will hit loose, but I don't have the cojones to do it.  I'll stick with my choice unless the move from the midpoint starts winning.  I doubt the more prosaic move is that much of an error (if it is one).

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Save a 6, slot the two points.

[close]

Bob

[ah_clem]

This looks pretty settled - the leading move has twice the votes as all the others put together.  I'm going to move it along.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The team settled on the best move here, although the second place vote-getter is almost within the margin of error. Surprisingly, running from the midpoint is not all that bad.




    1. Rollout          6/1 4/2                      Eq.:  -0.118
       0.383 0.038 0.001 - 0.617 0.041 0.000 CL  -0.233 CF  -0.118
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          8/3 4/2                      Eq.:  -0.130 ( -0.012)
       0.378 0.033 0.002 - 0.622 0.032 0.000 CL  -0.244 CF  -0.130
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          8/3 6/4                      Eq.:  -0.135 ( -0.017)
       0.374 0.027 0.002 - 0.626 0.031 0.000 CL  -0.256 CF  -0.135
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.002 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    4. Rollout          6/1 3/1                      Eq.:  -0.136 ( -0.017)
       0.376 0.034 0.001 - 0.624 0.038 0.000 CL  -0.250 CF  -0.136
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    5. Rollout          8/1                          Eq.:  -0.136 ( -0.017)
       0.374 0.032 0.001 - 0.626 0.034 0.000 CL  -0.251 CF  -0.136
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.003 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    6. Rollout          13/11 13/8                   Eq.:  -0.140 ( -0.021)
       0.369 0.020 0.002 - 0.631 0.015 0.000 CL  -0.256 CF  -0.140
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.006 CL   0.003 CF   0.004]

    7. Rollout          6/4 6/1                      Eq.:  -0.153 ( -0.034)
       0.371 0.032 0.001 - 0.629 0.042 0.000 CL  -0.273 CF  -0.153
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
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