Game 2 Move 16 Forum 6-5, CORRECTED

[blitzxz]

Unluckily, ah_clem misread Schigolch's move as he was careful not to leave joker shot for 6-5. So the original message should be deleted. I don't have rights or I can't find where to delete messages, so maybe somebody else could do it. In this corrected position roll is the same 6-5.

Forum Green, Schigolch White.

[stog]

thx blitzxz

[roadkillbooks]

If we run, we are about even in the race if we are NOT hit.  THE LOW NON RACE NUMBERS ARE YHE ONES THAT HIT Sorry about the caps. That give us about a 50% chance to win the 16 times we are not hit.  Seems too passive.  Staying back gives us the minor added advantage of less pips to get off gammon.  A closed board discourages loose hits and pick and pass numbers are clearly less than running.  I dont really care about 10/4 or 9/3.. im afraid this is just dividing the vote because they are essentially the same and I havent explored the differences.  I chose 10/4 because its one pip less wastede in a race or getting off gammon.  But admin..dont move ahead with the move if the combined staying back numbers outvote the running play...

Id then say go for the best voted stayback OR a ballotage

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Looks like running is all downside; 20 hitting numbers or buried in the race if he misses us with 6-6, 5-5, 4-4 or 3-3. With the exception of 4-4, I'd rather be in his home board if he rolls a big set. 1-1 and 2-2 are bad regardless of how we play.

Bar 20, 9-4.

[close]

Bob

[diane]

Spoiler

Bar 20, 9-4.

[close]

Spoiler

9/3, or 10/4? or is that shorthand to say either will do? 

[close]

[ah_clem]

Apologies for misplaying Schig's move - it seemed too good to be true (c:. 
Of course, what he posted should stand.  Thanks to blitzxz for catching the error - I'm glad somebody is paying attention.  I've attached an updated/corrected .sgf file. 

Spoiler

Running all the way leaves any 2 or any 1 to hit - the best double shot to leave, but still a double shot - I count 20 hitting rolls.

Staying on the 20 leaves only 4s to pick and pass or 22 to hit and cover. I don't think he'll hit loose with our board. That's 12 rolls to hit us.    Hanging back is safer, moreover, hanging back gives us a better chance of hitting a shot.

So, hang back.  where to play the 6?  Doesn't matter much.  10/4 looks good  - can't have too many checkers on the four...

bar/24 10/4

[close]

[ah_clem]

It's now 10-0 to hang back.  Nobody has expressed a strong opininn about 9/3 vs 10/4, so i'm going to move it along with the 10/4 move. 

I'll try not to screw it up this time....