game 2 Move 16 Forum to play 6-3

[ah_clem]

Run or stay and fight?

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

I'm inclined run with 20-11. Two crossovers, leaving us with just two to bring in to Schig's four and him with potential gapage. Might be wrong though; I could be persuaded to change my mind.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Time to run; close race, close crossovers. To stay is to start wasting pips and likely suffer the indignation of losing by pick - n - pass...........like being nibbled to death by gerbils.

20-14, 9-6.

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Bob

[dorbel]

Spoiler

It's clearly right to go. Now our blot is just a target for red. Only (!) 6-2 leaves a shot next turn and there are all those ( count them yourself) numbers that pick and pass or close us out instantly. Also we lead in the race after the roll. Either running play may be correct. I have played 20/11, but 20/14, 9/6 might be better, I haven't a clue about that.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Transitioning to a running game seems clear - we're ahead by a tempo, and we have the cube so we're actually favored to win.  Staying behind?  i can't think of anything positive.

So 20/14 is clear.  Where to play the 3?  I like moving a checker into the home board. For one thing, any 9 will bring the back man home, but with 20/11 5-4 still leaves  a man in the outfield.

That said, I don't think there's a big difference between 20/11 and 20/14 9/6. Either is fine.

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I'm just a crossover purist, I'm sure they're both close.

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Bob

[ah_clem]

...I'm sure they're both close.

Yeah, so am I,  and although I'm with  you on the choice of move, it's not worth prolonging the vote over a small equity margin.  So I'm going to move it along.  The real choice is whether to stay or go and we're unanimous on that.

[roadkillbooks]

I went for 20/11. My reason for that instead of 9/6 is because we have the cubed and the rhthem going for us now.  Since we have the cubed we are a favorite to win this game.  We are not trying to get of gammon here. If we move 9/6 we dont have any flexibilty on how we move the next roll.  With 20/11 we have more options next turn.  It is pretty much the same though and since no one is voting for the stay back and fight play there i no need to denounce it.  It has to be a whopper of a blunder to stay.  I only see 6-2 as the only blot number.. 5-4,44,22,55 close us out and 41,42,43,51, 52, 53, and are pick n pass. 11 is a pick and slide.

plus if we run we are 3 pips better than %50 in the race so we are about a 56% favorite plus we have the cube.  A redouble will put us out perfectly.  I think schig will have to be 32% to take.. eventhough hell have an auto rere to 8.  S after running we only have to advance like 12-13% more to win the game.  This is clearly more of a next then immediately meets the eye. (i mean next between "fight and run")

[ah_clem]

Agree that it's a blunder to stay.

But I think our advantage is more than just having the cube - we are ahead in the race by 7 pips, which is basically the same as being on roll and even.  Worth a tempo.  Of course, having access to the cube is worth something too, perhaps as much or more as the tempo.

Like Bob, I'm a crossover purist and will move a checker into the homeboard before making any other transition. My estimate is that 9/6 is a small equity gain over 20/11, but small enough that it's not worth quibbling about.  Still, I'm surprised that the vote was this lopsided.

I'm going to defer my cube analysis until after he's moved; suffice it to say that we'll have a cube vote no matter how he plays this roll.   I don't think that gives away much....

[ah_clem]

Expurgated bot results:

Spoiler

I've snipped the absolute equities and presented only the relative equities so as not to give away data that might be useful to a cube decision.

As expected the top two plays are close  - a statistical tie.



    1. Rollout          20/14 9/6                    Eq.: 
     
    2. Rollout          20/11                        Eq.:  ( -0.006)
       
    3. Rollout          20/14 6/3                    Eq.:  ( -0.090)
     
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840571151 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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