Game 2 Move 0 Forum to play 5-1

[ah_clem]

We won the opening with a mighty 5-1. 

Let me know if there's an option you'd like to add.

[stog]

Spoiler

13/8 6/5, i don't want to be struggling again, against an early blitz,so early on, our opponent is called blitzxz btw!, lets try and make things happen with slotting the 5 point......

[close]

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

With 2-1 and 4-1 I would slot the 5-point, but with 5-1 I won't because of the lack of enough builders to make the point EVEN if I'm not hit, as 13/8 doesn't provide me another builder. So 13/8-24/23.

PS: In FF, the tiny pic in stog's post linking to donation page looks like a dust. My monitor is very lucky that I didn't set it ablaze after trying to remove the goddamn 'dust' 5 times before realizing that it's a freaking link!

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

13/8, 6/5 is at least as good as 24/23, 13/8 and is thought to lead to more gammonish games with earlier cube opportunities. As we are trailing this should be our preferred play, but the difference isn't very great.

[close]

[ah_clem]

With the vote at 7-1 I was about to call this one, but with the second vote for the alternate play I'll let the polling period run the full 24 hours.  You've got a couple more hours to re-think your vote.

Spoiler

Slotting the 5 is an aggressive play that leads to more gammons, but also loses more games.  At gammon-go it's a viable play, but at this match score I don't think it wins enough additional gammons to make it worth the risk.  So I'm sticking with the prosaic split.

[close]

[ah_clem]

No cube decisions in sight, so here's a rollout

Spoiler

Splitting is correct here. Anything else is borderline doubtful. 

Surprisingly, the more aggressive move doesn't change the gammon rate for either player; it just loses more games. 


    1. Rollout          24/23 13/8                   Eq.:  -0.011
       0.504 0.132 0.006 - 0.496 0.137 0.009 CL  -0.003 CF  -0.011
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]

    2. Rollout          13/8 6/5                     Eq.:  -0.069 ( -0.058)
       0.491 0.132 0.006 - 0.509 0.138 0.016 CL  -0.027 CF  -0.069
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.017]

    3. Rollout          24/18                        Eq.:  -0.079 ( -0.067)
       0.494 0.116 0.006 - 0.506 0.137 0.007 CL  -0.047 CF  -0.079
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]

    4. Rollout          13/7                         Eq.:  -0.135 ( -0.124)
       0.477 0.129 0.008 - 0.523 0.143 0.017 CL  -0.070 CF  -0.135
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 840185179 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

PS: In FF, the tiny pic in stog's post linking to donation page looks like a dust. My monitor is very lucky that I didn't set it ablaze after trying to remove the goddamn 'dust' 5 times before realizing that it's a freaking link!

This intrigued me so much I went looking for the mysterious 'dust' that is a donation link. I couldn't see anything that fit the description, until I spotted a tiny thing at the bottom of stog's post, slightly off centre.  I spent ages hovering over it, and clicking it - until I realised it wasnt a link at all, but was dust on my monitor and cleaned it.....

[This is true btw - and it is the work PC, before anyone thinks I don't clean my home screens   ]

[stog]

toplefthandcornersurelynotanalretentivestuffornotenuffwoodtochop

as the guys say "don't panic"