Game 2 Move 3 Forum Cube

[ah_clem]

Let's do another cube decision.  This time with feeling!

[dorbel]

Good job I don't have control of the checkers this game!

Spoiler

I like to double this. We lead in the race, we have the better board and we have a good lot of market losing sequences. The rolls where we hit two and/or point on him and he flunks are deadly of course, but with his inflexible stacked position, the numbers where we just improve a bit and he does nothing are also very strong.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

i voted no cube as i think it is an easy take for him, and our position has a stripped mid board point (especially if we want to make the 7 point with a 6), no home board, no great pip advantage, and a return double from yer man could see us staring at a re-whip within a roll or 2.

but this wimpy post could possibly be a ruse to encourage our blitzxz to take, should we vote for cubing 

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[ah_clem]

I've been looking at bot results for recent rolls so I'm going to recuse myself from this vote. Thus, you won't have the benefit of my ...umm.... cogent "analysis". You're on you own, for better or worse.

BTW, I don't actually know whether this is a cube or not, so don't try to read between the lines for the answer, it's just that I've seen some numbers and they influence my thought process too much for me to participate in the vote.

Right now the vote is tied; if it remains tied at the end of the voting period we're going to roll.  That's the tiebreaker, I just wanted to state it in advance.

[ah_clem]

With the vote tied at the end of the 24 hour voting period, we roll the dice.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

We missed a cube here.  In fact, it's a whopper (-.099) to hold the cube.




Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.431 (Money:  +0.387)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.694
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.306)
3. No double            +0.595  ( -0.099)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.616 0.259 0.009 - 0.384 0.103 0.011 CL  +0.431 CF  +0.595
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]
Player blitzxz owns 2-cube:
  0.623 0.258 0.007 - 0.377 0.107 0.015 CL  +0.989 CF  +0.694
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.015 CF   0.020]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845650837 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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