Game 3 move 1 Forum to play 4-1

[ah_clem]

We have a 4-1 to play.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Hit the blot, slot the golden point.  The only other real option I see is hitting and bringing down another builder with 13/9.  I might think about that if we were desperate to get a gammon, but at even-steven, the slot seems much better.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Would anyone like to make a case for 24/20 23/22  or 13/9 8/7*?

[dorbel]

I like 13/9, 8/7, bringing another checker into the zone. Why do we want to slot the 20pt anchor? We are on the attack here and the more checkers we can bring to the party, the better. We may not be "desperate" to win a gammon, but they are always handy! I think this play wins more games anyway.

[stog]

Spoiler

yep that was my first choice too but i switched to slotting the 4  to help the vote along, now i shall switch back, and really put the mockers on it !!

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

My choice was to slot the 20, done almost on autopilot - but of course, 13/9 is much better as it brings more ammo to the combat zone, without increasing any risk.  I will change it now - and chalk it to a classic, 'I should have thought for a moment', moment 

[close]

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

I like 13/9, 8/7, bringing another checker into the zone.

Ok, I am persuaded to change my vote.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

It doesn't get much closer than this.  Hitting on the bar point is  mandatory, but the 4 can be played either by slotting the golden point or bringing down another builder.  The slotting play comes out slightly ahead overall, but not within the margin of error.  Both plays win the same percentage of games - the attacking play wins more gammons but loses more gammons too.

So this one is a choice of what kind of game we want to play - a direct attack, or a more positional game.  We've decided to go an the attack. 



    1. Rollout          24/20 8/7*                   Eq.:  +0.008
       0.495 0.135 0.011 - 0.505 0.118 0.010 CL  +0.016 CF  +0.008
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
       
    2. Rollout          13/9 8/7*                    Eq.:  +0.005 ( -0.003)
       0.496 0.150 0.013 - 0.504 0.142 0.014 CL  +0.012 CF  +0.005
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.007 CF   0.019]
       
    3. Rollout          8/7*/3                       Eq.:  -0.155 ( -0.163)
       0.469 0.132 0.011 - 0.531 0.146 0.016 CL  -0.086 CF  -0.155
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.003 0.003 CL   0.008 CF   0.026]
       
    4. Rollout          6/1*                         Eq.:  -0.164 ( -0.172)
       0.459 0.132 0.008 - 0.541 0.136 0.009 CL  -0.091 CF  -0.164
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]
       
    5. Rollout          24/20 23/22                  Eq.:  -0.215 ( -0.223)
       0.456 0.111 0.008 - 0.544 0.133 0.011 CL  -0.137 CF  -0.215
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845650837 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[ah_clem]

Why do we want to slot the 20pt anchor?

Two reasons: 1)  If he hits our blot on the bar-point it gives us a great chance to make the valuable 20-point - any 3 or any 5 does it.  2) since he has to use half a roll to enter, his blot on the 14 will probably still be a target - moving up to the 20 puts it in range. 


Sorry for the delayed response but by the time you posed this question I had already started playing around with the rollout so I couldn't answer at the time.  Now I can.

[adrian]

Would anyone like to make a case for 24/20 23/22  or 13/9 8/7*?

Dorbel just wrote how I feel about that move. I was the first one who voted for that  for what matters !