Game 4 Move 6

[roadkillbooks]

So blitzxz got a 61 from the bar and no Forum rolled a 3-2.....

time to vote again..

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Not an easy one. We can't cover our blot on the 4.

Do we keep hammering by hitting loose, or are we better off leaving the 4 slotted and trying to make that point?  I really like the idea of making the 4, but knocking him off balance allows us to bring more builders into range before he has a chance to recover.  With two checkers on the bar it's a 75% chance that one of them will still be sitting there after his move.  

So, hit.  Hitting on the 1 reduces the number of return hits, but there's no way to bring a builder into range if we do. 4/2* 11/8 puts a builder 6 points away from the blot leaving a 17/36 chance of covering next time, assuming the blot is still there to be covered.  Nothing else brings a builder into range, and I don't think it's a good idea to waste time by playing on the other side of the board.

Note that we can bring two builders to bear on the four by playing 13/10 11/9, and I might consider that if it didn't leave us with nine (!) blots strewn across the board.  I don't have the stomach for that.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

11/8 4/2 is ok and i will swap my choice of 23/20 4/2 making the 5 point if necessary

[close]

[roadkillbooks]

Our blitz was running on thin ice when we did the double hit.  If blitz was our game plan I see no reason to change course now.  At least we have a cover number with 11/8.  The most likely scenary is that we will make the 4 point board and then start scrambling and trapping blitzxz pieces while coming around the board.  Hell probably anchor.. our hope of course is that he will not.  But if we leave so pieces very far back, his position will be so disjointed that we'll pick up more pieces.  But for now  a hit with a we have over a third of a chance to cover that blot and make the 4 point board....

blitzxz does not hit on the 2 25/36 times we then cover 17/36... thats a lot because there are many other favorable outcomes as well

thats 425/1296 or roughly a third of the time