Game 4, move 43 : Forum 6-5

[diane]

After Blitzxz' surprise move there, it is Forums turn to move 6-5. 

Again, probably a no contest move..and I wil move it along shortly if a consensus comes together quickly.

P94AADi27QYEEA:QQm3ACAACAAA

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Brilliant! A vote for 23-12, fortunately anonymous. Here is a voter who either has a bet on that we we will lose the match or more likely, never considers what his/her opponent might roll next. If we stay back on the 23pt White has twenty (20!) rolls next turn that expose another blot for us to attack. If we run we don't get those shots. Not only that, we don't get the extended jeopardy after he is forced to point on us, or  when we can stay for another turn. The downside, well there is no downside really. An awful play. 0/10, take up Ludo.

[close]

[dorbel]

Spoiler

Unbelievable, two votes for the fencepost play! I have toothache by the way, not that you would have guessed.

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

i must admit i was worrying about  33 22 but i forgot  blitzxz must roll first! and probably twice! (im crap at ludo too!)

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Is it worth the risk  to leave a checker back to try to pick up another blot?  I think it is. But not by all that much, and I could be persuaded by a partner to just vamoose.  

14/3 is my vote.

[close]

[dorbel]

Fair enough, let's quantify the "risk" that some are wary of. White keeps his board after 6-6, 5-5 or 6-5 (11%). Then we fail to jump with 3-3, 2-2 or 3-2 (11%). After that sequence, probability 11 x 11 %, or 1.21% we still have three white checkers behind a five prime.
We take this risk because if we stay back, White has 20 blot numbers this turn alone (55%)and we hit that blot about 30%, 30 x 55% = 16.5% we send a fourth checker back, with a correspondingly greater number of gammons.
looks like a good bet to me!

[ah_clem]

I didn't see the 20 blot-leaving rolls.  I've been under the working assumption that picking up another checker was a long shot, but I now see that the odds are not all that long.  That changes the risk vs reward calculation as the chance of reward is higher than I had thought.

That said, there is some risk in staying behind, and were this DMP I'd probably just run the backman.

[diane]

Ok, this seems like a consensus, so I will move it along.