Game 4, move 44 : Forum 4-1

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 4-1....I think we will all agree on the 1...

P90AADh22w0AEA:QQmmACAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Is it being greedy to stay back in the hopes of picking up another another checker?  Seems that four should be sufficient, and the chances of it happening are small.    

That said, the spare on the 6 could be trouble, so I say move it to the 2 point and leave the runner on the 22.  23/22*, 6/2

[close]

[dorbel]

With only 4-1 from the bar as a shot number for us, it looks like time to hit and git. 22/18 for me.  Oh, voting closed, I'll have to be quicker!

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Getting out of Dodge is the correct play.  Hanging back is a .023 error.




    1. Rollout          23/22*/18                    Eq.:  +2.057
       0.977 0.564 0.292 - 0.023 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.060 CF  +2.057
      [0.001 0.003 0.009 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          23/22* 6/2                   Eq.:  +2.034 ( -0.023)
       0.974 0.555 0.264 - 0.026 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.039 CF  +2.034
      [0.001 0.003 0.008 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
 
    3. Rollout          23/22* 7/3                   Eq.:  +1.990 ( -0.067)
       0.972 0.536 0.270 - 0.028 0.000 0.000 CL  +1.998 CF  +1.990
      [0.001 0.003 0.009 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854393900 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]