Game 4, move 44 Blitzxz and 45 Forum : Forum 4-3

[diane]

Blitzxz rolled 1-6, and so is off the bar.

Forum rolled 4-3.

P24AADx22w2AAA:QYmxACAACAAA

Spoiler

I know this may seem like slow going, but I want to play this out collectively.  This is a classic example of where there are better and worse moves to optimise the bear off.  For example, in this kind of situation, I often look to clear the 7 now - with a roll that is nice and safe to do so, rather than plodding safely around the board, then finding myself rolling 6-5 and having to leave a blot on the 7, and the game can be lost.  His board is already trashed, so I feel like a risk can be taken and at this point, I would clear the 7 and have some fun 
If however, there is no chat, and everyone is collectively for the obvious moves, I will move it along.

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[stog]

Spoiler

y give a 66 when we don't need to?, and also his board can break up now - i think we should keep our 6 point 18/11

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We want to keep the bar point, so 7/4, 7/3 is out. 

If we run the backman with 18/11, rolls of 65 and 55 force us to leave a shot.  If we leave it in blitzxz's outfield we don't have any rolls that force us to leave a shot.  That's enough for me.

So, 18/14, 6/3 or 18/15, 6/2?

I like 18/14 6/3 - it creeps the checker closer, leaves an even number of checkers on all the points, and two spares on the 3 looks more flexible than a spare on the two.  But I dont think these are very big differences.

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

It doesn't matter much what we do as long as we keep the bar for another turn. Clem alertly spots 3 blotting rolls after 18/11, but they aren't very damaging, as White will often have another blot in his board when he gets a shot and hits it (a 2.5% chance). I suspect that 18/11 might even be the play, as stripping all our high points incurs some small risks of its own in the bear in. I think in real life I would have played 18/11 without even thinking!

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I had another go at fitting spoilers...first time didn't work for no apparent reason...

[diane]

Spoiler

We want to keep the bar point, so 7/4, 7/3 is out. 

If we run the backman with 18/11, rolls of 65 and 55 force us to leave a shot.  If we leave it in blitzxz's outfield we don't have any rolls that force us to leave a shot.  That's enough for me.

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Spoiler

Ok, well that is what I wasnt sure of - but your assessment of how to avoid the next damaging 6-6 or 6-5 is what I am talking about - so I will be persuaded to join you in not giving up the bar, but avoiding the damaging rolls.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

It doesn't matter much what we do as long as we keep the bar for another turn. Clem alertly spots 3 blotting rolls after 18/11, but they aren't very damaging, as White will often have another blot in his board when he gets a shot and hits it (a 2.5% chance). I suspect that 18/11 might even be the play, as stripping all our high points incurs some small risks of its own in the bear in. I think in real life I would have played 18/11 without even thinking!

Agree that the two moves are close.  But I've been boned by awkward rolls in the bear-off too many times, so I'm always on the lookout for awkward 66s 55s and 65s. 

I'm curious about the utility of the high-point spare - I tend to think of it as a liability, but what do I know?  Care to elaborate?

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I had another go at fitting spoilers...first time didn't work for no apparent reason...

Your first attempt had the text delimited by two open tags with no close tag.  I've made that mistake about 20 times, and have to fix it in preview.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Forum gets it right again.  Not a huge difference though.



    1. Rollout          18/11                        Eq.:  +2.046
       0.984 0.550 0.254 - 0.016 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.048 CF  +2.046
      [0.001 0.003 0.009 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
 
    2. Rollout          18/14 6/3                    Eq.:  +2.030 ( -0.016)
       0.982 0.544 0.246 - 0.018 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.032 CF  +2.030
      [0.001 0.003 0.009 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    3. Rollout          18/15 6/2                    Eq.:  +2.023 ( -0.023)
       0.981 0.541 0.244 - 0.019 0.000 0.000 CL  +2.025 CF  +2.023
      [0.001 0.003 0.009 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 854393900 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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