Game 5, move 3 : Forum 5-1

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 5-1

bM7BESDg28EAWA:cIm0ACAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Blitzxz has moved his builders into his home board, so entering on the 20 does not place us utg. 4 rolls point on our head and 7 rolls pick and pass - that's less than a 1/3 chance of clobbering us.  I say enter on the 20 to get things moving.  In any case, if we enter on the 24, I don't see anything good to do with the 5.

Where to play the 1?  8/7 doesn't do anything for us but isn't bad. Splitting the backmen seems risky at first, but it may be less risky in the long run since it gives us the best chance of making an anchor .  That said, I don't have the stones to play it.  I'll stick with the safer move.

bar/20 8/7

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[blitzxz]

Spoiler

Double.

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

Pass

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'd say his gammon chances are somewhere north of 20% and his winning chances are better than 67%.  That adds up to a pass.

One more game for the match.

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