Game 6, move 2 : Bltzxz 3-3

[diane]

Blitzxz, white, to move 3-3

4HPwAyDgc/ABMA:EYGtADAAGAAA

[blitzxz]

What a horrible roll! It's lucky roll of cource but bad in a way that I'm almost sure to make error here. All the choices look good and I'm not sure what's the best.

I have sometimes said that it is good to use money game equity (EMG), when you're analyzing your matches, because you get a better picture how big the error is. But there is some truth about match winning chances (MWC) also. Cost of error varies wildly according to score in MWC. The most important games are those that will decide the match, especially double match point games. You can easily lose with one small blunder as much equity as you have lost in whole match before that. So it's very important to be absolutily perfect, when you're playing double match points and it's a good idea  to practice those also.

Back to the move, I probably should move my back checkers. I don't want to get stuck and I don't think that it's normal to try to trap lonely back checker with prime, because it is easy to escape. Moving to bar point looks overly safe play. So I move 24/21(2). And that leaves 13/10(2), 8/5(2) and 6/3(2). All of these look very good. Difference is not propably big in EMG terms but in MWC (which is the "real" equity) it might be couple procents. I think I will go to 6/3(2). Forum's position is quite awkward and by making home board point I hope for maximum benefit from any hit that I might get on next roll. 8/5(2) loses one important blocking point against the runner and gives unnessecery shot (pip lead is always very important in double match points). It would also leave inflexible pile of checkers to 6-point. Then again 5-point is the golden point. Differences can't be big here. I move 24/21(2) 6/3(2).