Game 6, move 10 : Forum 3-2

[diane]

Cant think of anything we would want to do other than these - so what is the vote for Forum, blue, here?

ttsJAAYz2wYDIA:UYmpADAAGAAA

[dorbel]

Spoiler

You can make a good case for either of these plays; 13/8 leaves four shots but keeps our four prime, while 8/5, 8/6 leaves no shots and creates two spare checkers to play with if we survive next turn. I like the spares after breaking the 8pt, but who knows.However, as we are going on the bar after 29 numbers and seeing him disappear with 6-6, I'm not too hopeful whatever we play!

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

What about 5/2 5/3? 

I was looking at that and it has the advantage of leaving no shots and keeping most of the blockade intact.  The problem is, by providing counterplay it practically invites a loose hit on our ace point runner.  It also facilitates blitzxz running one of his backmen.

As for the two plays offered for consideration, I think I'd like to maintain the blockade.  Granted, it gives him another 4 good numbers, but having a four-prime will pay dividends if we manage to leap. 

13/8

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Clearing the eight point is a .077 error vs moving a checker down from the midpoint.  I would've thought the two moves were closer.  (5/3 5/2 is a whopper, in case you were wondering)





    1. Rollout          13/8                         Eq.:  -0.385
       0.308 0.092 0.004 - 0.692 0.390 0.011 CL  -0.385 CF  -0.385
      [0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.008 0.002 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          8/6 8/5                      Eq.:  -0.462 ( -0.077)
       0.269 0.104 0.005 - 0.731 0.353 0.005 CL  -0.462 CF  -0.462
      [0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.009 0.001 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 851510817 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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