Game 1, move 3, dorbel 3-1?

[Zorba]

Uhm, I hope I didn't do anything bad with the dice generator, but another 3-1 popped out, this time for dorbel! dorbel , I hope you're comfortable with playing this way. (If I swap the board, the colours for the players swap too it seems, so that might be very confusing).

readers moved 24/21 making the anchor, 11/10 moving the builder. dorbel rolls 3-1

XGID=-a---BC-C-A-fD---b-dbB----:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:5:10

[dorbel]

Tough play! Moving up to the 21pt doesn't appeal. The risk is great, the gain is small. Dumping a checker behind the anchor can't be right either, safety for another roll but no gain. This play has to come from the obese midpoint and I like 13/10, 6/5. It duplicates all the good sixes that the team has on the other side of the board, slots a useful blocking point and splits the spares on the 6pt. That's quite a lot of work for one ordinary small roll. 13/9 is one fewer shot of course, but doesn't duplicate anything and doesn't diversify the builders, so it has to be second best.

[Zorba]

Any herd members like to comment on dorbel's play? By far the most interesting of the match so far! Unfortunately I know the bot's verdict already so can't comment. I will post it later.

[diane]

And I chatted with him in shouts about it.

[sixty_something]

well, let me take a shot at it .. i like moving up the straggler with 24/21 and then 6/5 to take care of the one which dorbel originally dismissed

while the 24/21 increases the chances of being hit and covered at the 21 point, it also sets up a possible escape .. coming down with the 13/10 risks getting hit and yielding two stragglers - perhaps two dancing on the bar .. since escape, not blocking, is the early theme in this game, it seems sensible to advance that theme

[ah_clem]

If you've been reading his blog (http://dorbeldaily.blogspot.com/), the play would be utterly unsurprising.  He's been on about stacks and how any stack should have a big red flag on it saying "unstack me!"   Here he has a stack of 6 on the 13 and a stack of 4 on the six.  The flags would tell you to play 13/10 6/5.

But, of course, the flags are not always right.  Is there something better to do?  

Moving the back man up in preparation to escape is a worthy objecitive,  but it places it UTG - that's Migriel's TLA for "under the gun" or three or more builders aimed at the blot.  With an advanced anchor we'll probably hit loose with any 2, 4, 6, or 9.  That's a lot of shots, and almost 25% of the rolls point on his head.  Moving the runner up is a recipe for being hit.

Playing behind our anchor is weak and passive.  

13/10 only unstacks one point rather than two.   It leaves one fewer roll to hit as Dorbel noted, but it's worth giving that up to get spares on both the 5 and 6.   


Seeing nothing better, salute the flags! Unstack by playing off both candlesticks. It's what Dorbel would do.

[dorbel]

Snowie will play 24/21, 6/5 and the rollout seems to confirm that. 13/10 is an error. It seems that getting into the escape hatch is worth the risk of being attacked after all. Oh well! Tough play as I said at the time.

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

    1. Rollout¹    24/21 6/5                    eq:-0,251
      Player  : 45,36% (G:7,62% B:0,42%)
      Opponent: 54,64% (G:15,52% B:0,50%)
      Confidence: ± 0,010 (-0,261<E<-0,241)
      Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/10 6/5                    eq:-0,323 (-0,072)
      Player  : 42,42% (G:7,86% B:0,43%)
      Opponent: 57,58% (G:13,71% B:0,55%)
      Confidence: ± 0,010 (-0,333<E<-0,313)
      Duration: 25 minutes 28 seconds

¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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