Game 1, move 6, Herd to play 3-2

[Zorba]

The Herd simply ran the backchecker all the way with the 5-1, 21/15.
dorbel rolled a 6-5 joker to hit it, 21/10*
Now the Herd has a 3-2 from the bar to play.

XGID=----aBC-C-B-eD-a-b-cc----A:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:5:10

[stog]

Spoiler

b22 6/4*how dare he? we must bash him back, the upstart (and maintain tempo and possibly pen him in, or out for ever) - good to see him fall for our ploy and break his anchor btw

[close]

[gumpi]

Spoiler

Hit. race is even, no anchor, boards are equal, we have one more attacker in the zone: hittingcontest.

[close]

[RickrInSF]

more help pls

Spoiler

hit of course

[close]

but this is the first time i notices an * next to my choice when i voted, what does that mean?

[RickrInSF]

and what is a back checker?

[diane]

and what is a back checker?

Erm, a checker that is at the back...in this case, we had one checker that was still in our opponents homeboard - ie at the back.  The checker the furthest away from your home board would be your backchecker.

[diane]

but this is the first time i notices an * next to my choice when i voted, what does that mean?

That means that move hits an opponents checker.

[sixty_something]

hey, Zorba, thanks for including the .MAT file, but when i attempt to open it Microsoft Access kicks in as it is an Access file type (i guess) ..  i could just save it to the desktop or somewhere and then open it with GNUbg, but i know from past experience that requires bouncing around in various directories and disturbing default setting for my other file saves and opens, i.e. a pain in the arse

so, are GNUbg like Position and Match ID's possible for you to include and no hassle for you?

if so, copying and pasting them to set up a GNUbg board might be the easiest alternative and have less footprint on the server

any suggestions would be welcomed

thanks

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Not an easy play.

We're UTG regardless of where we enter, but sixes are blocked from the 22, so entering on the 23 looks better. If we play bar\23, the only good two is 13/11, and that unstacks the 13 and duplicates 7s, so  it looks at least as good as any other.

If we play bar 22, we can move 8/5 which looks better than it is; it strips the eight, and the spares on the  5&6 are too far forward to meaningfully contain the runner.  13/10 is much better - unstacking and putting a spare on the checker 6 points away from the runner.

So, those are my candidate moves.  With the blot UTG, I'm a bit leery of leaving another blot if it's not necessary and here it isn't.  We get good diversity with the "safe" move, so I'm going to go with the less desirable entry in favor of a safer outfield.  bar/22 13/10

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

So, now I've looked at the vote and the discussion.  Actually, my first hunch was to enter and hitk, but I talked myself out of it as "too rash".   But now that I'm looking at it again, it actually seems safest - our blot is utg, so take away half his roll and we're in better shape.  If he hits our homeboard blot, we get the chance to anchor, and if he misses he'll have to hit loose if he wants to hit.

Agree with the herd thaqat the hitting play is best.  Time to change my vote....

[close]

[sixty_something]

no need to change a vote, ah_clem, i was the lone vote to cube way back when .. i was tempted to change it, but i was feeling aggressive and decided to let it stand out of curiousity

now, i am coming to think of it as my variation, i.e. a divergent thread from that position forward in which dorbel accepted the cube .. in some hyper cool forum playing out a match like this, it might be interesting to see what those divergent threads might look like over the full scope of a game and match

i have seen chess engine notation that can easily handle such variations (no, stog, i don't expect you to have it ready by Wednesday )

isn't there a variety of chouette in which players can make a side bet against the player in the box effectively starting another match with a divergent varient and thereafter using the same dice rolls? if so, what is that called? if not, why not? if everyone had their own board it would be easy to manage in face to face play

"easy"

[Zorba]

XG Roller+ analysis:

Spoiler

    1. XG Roller+  Bar/22 8/6                   eq:+0,026
      Player  : 50,77% (G:10,01% B:0,34%)
      Opponent: 49,23% (G:9,85% B:0,26%)

    2. XG Roller+  Bar/22 6/4*                  eq:+0,026
      Player  : 51,26% (G:11,77% B:0,41%)
      Opponent: 48,74% (G:12,18% B:0,45%)

    3. XG Roller+  Bar/22 13/11                 eq:+0,010 (-0,016)
      Player  : 50,42% (G:10,28% B:0,36%)
      Opponent: 49,58% (G:10,04% B:0,31%)

    4. XG Roller+  Bar/23 8/5                   eq:-0,019 (-0,045)
      Player  : 49,41% (G:11,27% B:0,35%)
      Opponent: 50,59% (G:10,83% B:0,29%)

    5. XG Roller+  Bar/23 13/10                 eq:-0,022 (-0,049)
      Player  : 49,47% (G:10,67% B:0,33%)
      Opponent: 50,53% (G:10,53% B:0,28%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Interesting result... entering on 22 looks best but the loose hit is pretty loose here, with quite a few double hitting, gammonish returns for dorbel. 8/6 probably looks uglier than it really is, against one man back (on the adagium of "one man back, attack!" vs. "prime two backmen").

Will do a rollout.

[close]

[Zorba]

XG Rollout:

Spoiler

The full rollout has 6/4* on top, but it's a pretty small margin.

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/22 6/4*                  eq:+0,035
      Player  : 51,31% (G:12,24% B:0,62%)
      Opponent: 48,69% (G:12,41% B:0,64%)
      Confidence: ± 0,008 (+0,027<E<+0,043)
      Duration: 46 minutes 05 seconds

    2. Rollout²    Bar/22 8/6                   eq:+0,015 (-0,020)
      Player  : 50,36% (G:10,31% B:0,43%)
      Opponent: 49,64% (G:10,28% B:0,38%)
      Confidence: ± 0,007 (+0,008<E<+0,022)
      Duration: 34 minutes 59 seconds

    3. Rollout³    Bar/22 13/11                 eq:+0,007 (-0,028)
      Player  : 50,26% (G:10,35% B:0,48%)
      Opponent: 49,74% (G:10,28% B:0,42%)
      Confidence: ± 0,009 (-0,002<E<+0,016)
      Duration: 20 minutes 17 seconds

    4. Rollout³    Bar/23 8/5                   eq:-0,036 (-0,071)
      Player  : 48,72% (G:11,41% B:0,44%)
      Opponent: 51,28% (G:11,12% B:0,46%)
      Confidence: ± 0,009 (-0,045<E<-0,027)
      Duration: 22 minutes 01 second

    5. Rollout³    Bar/23 13/10                 eq:-0,037 (-0,072)
      Player  : 48,86% (G:10,89% B:0,46%)
      Opponent: 51,14% (G:10,89% B:0,42%)
      Confidence: ± 0,009 (-0,046<E<-0,028)
      Duration: 21 minutes 23 seconds

¹ 11578 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

² 11579 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

³ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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