Game 1, move 7, Herd to play 5-4

[Zorba]

Herd moved B/22 6/4*, the loose hit.
dorbel rolled a 1-1 from the bar, for a return-hit B/21*

Now the Herd has a 5-4 from the bar to play

XGID=----aBB-C-B-eD-a-b-cc-A--A:0:0:1:45:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: cGfiAwSwOeMBRA:cAm2AAAAAAAA

[sixty_something]

thanks for including the GNUbg ID .. it worked great 

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

We are guaranteed to get hit here. And because of this I would leave both checker behind so that we can anchor more easily or get return shots if dorbel hits loose.

[close]

[diane]

thanks for including the GNUbg ID .. it worked great  

hmmmmm, what for??  

Spoiler

I am definitely wanting to run a checker from the back right now.  I know there is risk, but there is a lot of risk leaving those two blots with all the builders behind them. It is just begging for a point to be made on our head - thereby seriously worsening our position.

I would rather take my chances out there in his outer board, where at least if we are hit, there is a much reduced chance of a third point being made. And that hit might serve better for making an anchor should it come to that.

[close]

[gumpi]

Spoiler

I would stay on the 21 point here and play 13/8. Stay back and try to anchor. Dorbel is a bit short of attacers (9) and his 8 Point is stripped.
So a lot of his pointing numbers leave a blot on the 8 and give some indirect returns. It´s less dangerous to stay back as it looks like.
Give Dorbel a spare on the 8 and i run...  13/8 looks like the best 5. 8/3 playing behind his blot and leaving a blot ourselves can´t be right.
The blots gives him total freedom to attack.

[close]

[ah_clem]

We can: 

1) enter and keep moving
2) enter and make a stack on the eight
3) enter and break the ten point
4) enter, strip the eight and bury a checker

Only play one looks at all appealing and that's to run the checker.  bar/16

[sixty_something]

hmmmmm, what for??  

for loading the position into GNUbg so that i can look at it too .. it especially helped this morning before coffee and after my ritualistic flogging in another thread

[stog]

tis a cruel and considerate skipper of flogged fellows aboard the good ship f'board 

[gumpi]

2) enter and make a stack on the eight

I don´t think that extra checker on the 8-point isn´t much of a liability or kind of stacking. front position is stripped and that additional
checker smoothes position with any 2 or 3 and hits with a four. difficult position, i started a long rollout, i´ll post next days.

[ah_clem]

Yeah, a spare spare on the eight is not exactly the end of the world.  It's definitely better than playing behind the blot or abandoning the ten point.  Whether it's better than running  the back checker is debatable - I'm not sure, but since I'm not in a stack-making mood today I'm siding with the running play.   

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/21 13/8                  eq:-0,390
      Player  : 41,44% (G:9,58% B:0,59%)
      Opponent: 58,56% (G:17,10% B:0,94%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,396<E<-0,384)
      Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/16                       eq:-0,403 (-0,013)
      Player  : 41,74% (G:8,80% B:0,58%)
      Opponent: 58,26% (G:19,64% B:0,87%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,409<E<-0,397)
      Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

¹ 23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

[close]

[diane]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/21 13/8                  eq:-0,390
      Player  : 41,44% (G:9,58% B:0,59%)
      Opponent: 58,56% (G:17,10% B:0,94%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,396<E<-0,384)
      Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/16                       eq:-0,403 (-0,013)
      Player  : 41,74% (G:8,80% B:0,58%)
      Opponent: 58,26% (G:19,64% B:0,87%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,409<E<-0,397)
      Duration: 1 hour 32 minutes

¹ 23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

[close]

Pah!! what do the danged bots know!!   

[ah_clem]

With the confidence interval at +/- .006, a difference of .013 is barely within the margin of error.  My take is that I'm not going to worry about the .01 errors until I expunge the .1 errors from my play.

[diane]

With the confidence interval at +/- .006, a difference of .013 is barely within the margin of error.  My take is that I'm not going to worry about the .01 errors until I expunge the .1 errors from my play.

Whilst I get busy working on those 1 errors....