Game 1, move 7, dorbel to play 5-2

[Zorba]

The Herd played 5-4 entering from the bar and bringing another builder down B/21 13/8.

Now dorbel doesn't double and has a 5-2 to play.

XGID=----aBB-D-B-eC-a-b-ccAA---:0:0:-1:52:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: cGfiAwSwecYBCg:MAG1AAAAAAAA

[dorbel]

I did consider doubling this, race lead, threats, one man back aginst two, but a bad sequence here can see me back as an underdog in a roll and the side owning the cube at 5-away, 5-away has a strong recube much earlier than usual. I also thought that while I could lose my market here, I wouldn't lose it by much.
So, 5-2 to play. It looks pretty clear to play 8/3*, 5/3. If I could play safe I would, but I can't so put him on the roof, make a point and say pah to three blots! Dance and I double.

[Zorba]

XG cube rollout:

Spoiler

It would be a huge blunder to double this, unless there's any chance of a pass of course.

No Double
  Player Winning Chances:    58,73% (G: 17,14% B:  0,90%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:  41,27% (G:  9,35% B:  0,59%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:    58,25% (G: 18,60% B:  1,10%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:  41,75% (G: 10,01% B:  0,97%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,249, Double=+0,533

Cubeful Equities:
       No Double:   +0,403
       Double/Take: +0,213 (-0,190)
       Double/Drop: +1,000 (+0,597)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout
  3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red
  Confidence No Double: ± 0,015 (+0,389<E<+0,418)
  Confidence Double:    ± 0,019 (+0,194<E<+0,233)
 
  Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
  Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
 
  Duration: 27 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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[Zorba]

XG roller+ on move:

Spoiler

Not the best 3 plays, but what might be the three most interesting to compare. Pointing is very clear.

    1. XG Roller+  8/3* 5/3                     eq:+0,286
      Player  : 54,61% (G:19,24% B:0,66%)
      Opponent: 45,39% (G:10,53% B:0,45%)

    2. XG Roller+  21/16 10/8                   eq:+0,172 (-0,114)
      Player  : 55,08% (G:11,09% B:0,44%)
      Opponent: 44,92% (G:9,11% B:0,29%)

    3. XG Roller+  13/8 10/8                    eq:+0,059 (-0,228)
      Player  : 52,09% (G:11,51% B:0,48%)
      Opponent: 47,91% (G:10,85% B:0,32%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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