Game 1, move 10, dorbel 3-2

[Zorba]

dorbel played the 5-3 21/13, The Herd danced again with a 4-3.

Now dorbel has a 3-2 to play.

XGID=-----BC-C-B-fC---a-bbbb-AA:1:1:-1:32:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: bJvgBwCwc8YBUA:EQGtAAAAAAAA

[diane]

Now remember - when you look at this board...I am out...I passed...the rest are on a 2 cube, and sixty is on a 4 cube 

Sorry, just killing time while we wait for dorbel to get here and move 

[sixty_something]

we danced? i must've missed that - uh oh  i guess i was all a dither about something else

[dorbel]

My initial reaction was to just make the very useful 8pt, but I think is probably a mistake. 13/10, 13/11 looks like the play to me. Worth the risk of 6-2 from the bar? I think so, after all, I get hatfuls of returns if the team roll that joker and a lot of benefit when they don't. if I just make the 8pt and the team enters, I'm going to have to pull down builders and face indirect shots. Time to diversify now!

[ah_clem]

The nice thing about the 8 point is that it blocks sixes from the two point. Of course, we don't have any checkers on the two point yet, so making the 8 point is perhaps premature.  Making the bar point or the two point should be the next objective and your play gives lots of numbers that make the bar point.  Looks like a winner to me.

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

    1. Rollout¹    13/11 13/10                  eq:+0,906
      Player  : 79,43% (G:33,22% B:1,06%)
      Opponent: 20,57% (G:2,93% B:0,25%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+0,901<E<+0,911)
      Duration: 17 minutes 32 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/10 8/6                    eq:+0,895 (-0,011)
      Player  : 79,00% (G:33,07% B:1,07%)
      Opponent: 21,00% (G:2,93% B:0,21%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+0,890<E<+0,900)
      Duration: 14 minutes 20 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    13/8                         eq:+0,894 (-0,012)
      Player  : 79,60% (G:31,59% B:1,07%)
      Opponent: 20,40% (G:2,74% B:0,22%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+0,889<E<+0,899)
      Duration: 12 minutes 32 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    13/11 8/5                    eq:+0,885 (-0,021)
      Player  : 78,72% (G:33,03% B:1,08%)
      Opponent: 21,28% (G:2,98% B:0,23%)
      Confidence: ± 0,005 (+0,880<E<+0,890)
      Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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