News:

Thx to our VIP donor/subscribers in 2009 cheers! .....webrunner, stog, spielberg, dickbalaska, b8factor, jackdaddy, anonymouse, diane, dropper, zorba, papillon, fiftythree, ramses, adrian, FrankBerger, krakan and ah_clem

Main Menu

Game 1, move 13, Herd to play 5-1

Started by Zorba, June 26, 2010, 11:33:07 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

Zorba

dorbel played his 5-3 making the eightpoint and moving an attacker to the 5pt 11/8 10/5, the Herd danced once more with a 5-4, dorbel rolls a nice 6-3 to close the two point 8/2 5/2, now the Herd finally enters! Yay. Just a 5 on the other die we need to ponder about.

XGID=-----BC-C-B-dC---a-bbbbbAA:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: tm2CBwCwc8YBUA:UYm0AAAAAAAA
The fascist's feelings of insecurity run so deep that he desperately needs a classification of some things as successful or superior and other things as failed or inferior. This also underlies the fascist's embracement of concepts like mental illness and IQ tests.  - R.J.V.

Luck is my main skill

diane

I am not here voting, just peering over from the bar, to see if you have a hope with this one  ;) :laugh: :laugh:
Never give up on the things that make you smile

ah_clem

We've got an ace point game, which appears to be well timed.  That usually gives about a 25% winning chance (and is a take for money or  early match scores).

Spoiler

Our objective should be to make our home board points in order. 8/3 and 6/1 are out of order. 13/3 makes a stack and doesn't diversify our position.  10/5 is what's left, so that must be the move.
[close]

RickrInSF

Spoiler
i voted as ah_clem did, for the exact same reason - the 4 spot should be our next target - 10-5
[close]

Zorba

XG rollout:

Spoiler

It's very close, 1 and 2 are too close to call. 10/5 is a little behind, I'd say that's because it doesn't start a new point, whereas it does break up a useful point: the tenpoint is good to have as long as the fourpoint isn't made. Byut anyway, you can't really go wrong here, except with 6/1.

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/24 13/8                  eq:-0,779
      Player  : 20,01% (G:1,34% B:0,09%)
      Opponent: 79,99% (G:21,39% B:1,44%)
      Confidence: ± 0,004 (-0,783<E<-0,775)
      Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/24 8/3                   eq:-0,779 (-0,001)
      Player  : 19,91% (G:1,34% B:0,09%)
      Opponent: 80,09% (G:21,07% B:1,51%)
      Confidence: ± 0,004 (-0,783<E<-0,775)
      Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    Bar/24 10/5                  eq:-0,788 (-0,010)
      Player  : 19,68% (G:1,36% B:0,09%)
      Opponent: 80,32% (G:21,37% B:1,47%)
      Confidence: ± 0,004 (-0,792<E<-0,784)
      Duration: 5 minutes 56 seconds


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
[close]
The fascist's feelings of insecurity run so deep that he desperately needs a classification of some things as successful or superior and other things as failed or inferior. This also underlies the fascist's embracement of concepts like mental illness and IQ tests.  - R.J.V.

Luck is my main skill