Game 1, move 15, Herd to play 4-2

[Zorba]

The Herd decided to use the 6-3 to hit last turn with 24/15*. dorbel didn't roll a three, but a 4-2 instead. In FIBS chat, he told me he wanted to move B/21 8/6 (B/23 8/4 looks to be the only reasonable alternative). Now it's the Herd again, also with a 4-2 to play:



XGID=---AaBC-B-B-bC-A-a-cbbbbA-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: tu0EAwRkZ8YJIA:UQmxAAAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Ack!  Another headache-inducing move.

Making the 11 point is awfully darn tempting, but it practically invites him to hit loose with any 5 or 7.  I think we need a tempo move to keep our head above water, and pointing on his head and making the best three homeboard points does that very nicely.  But we still risk him rolling a 3, and to that we add 6-2 (and the devastating 5-3).

This is one where you just have to "read the numbers".  Go through each possible roll for Dorbel and see what it does for each of the two plays.  Most numbers are bad for us whichever move we make, there are a few that are good for both, but 1-6, 2-5, 4-5, 5-5, 5-6 and 6-6 are good with the hit and bad with the eleven-point-making play and I don't see any rolls that break the other way.  That's ten rolls that make a clearly better result with the hit.


So, hit and hope for the best. 

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[diane]

Nice poll - I can check the board while replying 

Spoiler

I think hitting is the only way to try and avoid being in a real pickle here - attack is the best form of defence 

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[ah_clem]

Nice poll - I can check the board while replying 

Spoiler

I think hitting is the only way to try and avoid being in a real pickle here - attack is the best form of defence 

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Wait - I thought you had adjourned to the bar with Tim Howard and Robert Green.  What gives?

[sixty_something]

  nice way to display the board in the question!

how'd you do that?

[Zorba]

Using stog's method for embedding, and adding one in the post itself too, see post over there: http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-matches/fred%28img%29httpwww-fibsboard-comfibsboard-forum-match-5-83game-1-move-14-herd/. It requires a few extra steps but they can be done very quickly. No need for uploading to the gallery, or flickr. More discussion, over there please 

[sixty_something]

Spoiler

here we are again with another "that's the ballgame" decision .. i voted for the hit and cover on the 4 point, but the more i look at it, i wonder if it is right .. i suspect the rollouts will prove it right, but damned if i can put it in words

what i don't like about giving away another shot at the slotted three point is now adding yet another blot on our 8 point .. that leaves us open to a double hit on a 35 and hits on 15, 25, and 26 .. a double hit would greatly increase our chances at getting gammoned, even a hit might if we cannot secure the ace point .. on the other hand, 44, 55, 66, 45, 46, 56 and dorbel dances .. 9 ways for dorbel to dance and 8 ways for us to get hit or double hit .. the prospect of envisioning dorbel dancing on the bar is worth the risk, metaphorically, if not mathematically

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[blitzxz]

I voted for 11-point. HItting looks absolutely lunatic. We would have several blots all over the board when dorpel has 5 point home board. Unless dorpel dances against our 3 point board it's a sure gammon loss. But making the 11-point looks horrible also. We lose lots of gammons there too but I'm guessing that it must be less then leaving all those blots. We are knee deep in sh** here.

[socksey]

I was away and didn't vote, but I would have gone for the 11 point also, and for the same reasons outlined by blitzxz.

socksey



"I've been on so many blind dates, I should get a free dog." - Wendy Liebman

[diane]

Voting is still open...

[socksey]

Thx, I hadn't gotten that far down the list catching up after my trip.     I usually start from the bottom of the list, but this time, I went from the top.   

socksey



"Human beings are the only creatures on earth that allow their children to come back home." - Bill Cosby

[Zorba]

If you haven't seen them yet, I suggest you check out the results from the rollouts for our previous 6-3 first.

Here's an XG rollout for our 4-2:

Spoiler

When I voted for this one, I had already seen the huge blunder our 6-3 hit was, with all the gammon losses. Because of that feedback, I decided to make the 11pt here. Not sure if I would have otherwise.

For the Herd as a whole, it's "oops I did it again" but a slightly smaller offence here to go bold. What's very interesting to note here is that the pointing play doesn't even win more games! It's just not the right approach here, it seems, with that 3pt blot and other blots strewn around to halt our attack very quickly when either one gets hit. Putting dorbel on the bar here actually doesn't do much for safety, if you look at all the rolls dorbel has that will hit something.

    1. Rollout¹    15/11 13/11                  eq:-0,963
      Player  : 25,54% (G:5,05% B:0,47%)
      Opponent: 74,46% (G:49,48% B:1,12%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (-0,969<E<-0,957)
      Duration: 16 minutes 18 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    8/4* 6/4                     eq:-1,099 (-0,136)
      Player  : 25,20% (G:4,63% B:0,41%)
      Opponent: 74,80% (G:55,54% B:5,20%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (-1,105<E<-1,093)
      Duration: 18 minutes 28 seconds


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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[Zorba]

XG rollout of dorbel's 4-2 before the Herd's play:

Spoiler

Looks like dorbel would've been better off staying back on the 23pt for a shot at our blot, for some extra wins and especially a few extra gammons.

    1. Rollout¹    Bar/23 8/4                   eq:+0,840
      Player  : 70,93% (G:46,95% B:1,37%)
      Opponent: 29,07% (G:5,60% B:0,49%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,834<E<+0,846)
      Duration: 14 minutes 34 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    Bar/21 8/6                   eq:+0,802 (-0,038)
      Player  : 70,43% (G:44,96% B:1,51%)
      Opponent: 29,57% (G:5,61% B:0,51%)
      Confidence: ± 0,006 (+0,796<E<+0,808)
      Duration: 14 minutes 19 seconds


¹ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
  Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red


eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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