Game 1, move 16, dorbel to play 6-3

[Zorba]

The Herd played the 4-2 pointing 8/4* 6/4; dorbel rolled a 1-5 off the bar missing our blot, but obviously hitting us on his acepoint B/24 6/1*. We danced with a 5-4.

Now it's dorbel in the comfy chair with a 6-3 to play:



XGID=-a-ABBB-A-B-bC-A-a-bbbbbaA:1:1:-1:63:0:0:0:5:10
GNUBg Id: bdsEAyC0TcYJQA:EYG5AAAAAAAA

[sixty_something]

comfy indeed .. i am squirming like hell sitting on an imaginary 4 cube whose edges are getting very sharp 

Q: how many ways can we roll and play a 11?
A: not enough 

[diane]

The temperature is lovely here in the bar - you all look a bit sweaty....

[dorbel]

This looks pretty clear, 13/7, 13/10*. The six to the 7pt is a slot or a builder depending and shouldn't be wasted digging out the back man. He should get out easily later.

[Zorba]

XG rollout:

Spoiler

XG liked 24/18 with the 6 on 3-ply, but reverses on rollout. A matter of balancing single wins, vs. (back)gammon wins and avoiding the fluke gammon loss.

   1. Rollout¹    13/7 13/10*                  eq:+1,753
     Player  : 86,72% (G:78,11% B:8,48%)
     Opponent: 13,28% (G:2,11% B:0,27%)
     Confidence: ± 0,006 (+1,747<E<+1,759)
     Duration: 9 minutes 41 seconds

   2. Rollout¹    24/18 13/10*                 eq:+1,728 (-0,025)
     Player  : 87,22% (G:77,30% B:6,15%)
     Opponent: 12,78% (G:2,52% B:0,47%)
     Confidence: ± 0,006 (+1,722<E<+1,734)
     Duration: 8 minutes 30 seconds

   3. Rollout²    13/10* 10/4                  eq:+1,691 (-0,062)
     Player  : 85,61% (G:76,60% B:7,71%)
     Opponent: 14,39% (G:2,43% B:0,34%)
     Confidence: ± 0,016 (+1,675<E<+1,707)
     Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds


¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
 Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
 Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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