Game 2, move 3, Herd to play 5-4

[Zorba]

The Herd played B/24 6/2* last time, dorbel rolled a 2-6 from the bar to enter one, and hit B/23*. Now it's the Herd to play 5-4 from the bar:



XGID=a-a---DAB---dD---d-e----CA:0:0:1:54:0:4:1:5:10
GNUBg Id: 4PPgAUjgNXgAXA:8Am2AEAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The obvious move is to enter and make the golden point.  The problem with that is the 5-1 combo is about the worst backgame structure, and it does nothing aggressive on the attacking side of the board.  Otoh, we're not in a backgame yet; its the lack of initiative that makes me want to look for something else.

We could hit again, but now we have one less checker in the zone.  I didn't like hitting before and I like it even less now.  Nah.

I like bringing in another builder and going for the prime. bar/20 13/9.   Good mobility, and it slots the prime.  I'm not sure this is better than the prosaic bar 20 24/20, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[close]

[socksey]

Spoiler

I like bar/20, 6/2 for the reason "what do we have to lose?"  We are as likely to be hit leaving the 2 pt shot as we are leaving the 7 pt shot or any other, so I think we should be agressive and go for broke.     We still have the possibility of a backgame in the making. 

[close]

socksey



Remember that the most beautiful things in the world are the most useless; peacocks and lilies for instance. - John Ruskin

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Obviously, the obvious move is obviously correct. 

Bringing down a builder is a .06 error.  Hitting is a .09 error.




   

    1. Rollout          bar/20 24/20                 Eq.:  -0.020
       0.484 0.115 0.004 - 0.516 0.280 0.056 CL  -0.020 CF  -0.020
      [0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.005 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]
       
    2. Rollout          bar/20 13/9                  Eq.:  -0.081 ( -0.061)
       0.453 0.107 0.006 - 0.547 0.328 0.103 CL  -0.081 CF  -0.081
      [0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]
       
    3. Rollout          bar/21 13/8                  Eq.:  -0.106 ( -0.086)
       0.442 0.104 0.004 - 0.558 0.314 0.091 CL  -0.106 CF  -0.106
      [0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]
       
    4. Rollout          bar/20 6/2*                  Eq.:  -0.110 ( -0.090)
       0.439 0.107 0.004 - 0.561 0.326 0.106 CL  -0.110 CF  -0.110
      [0.005 0.003 0.001 - 0.005 0.007 0.007 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]
       
    5. Rollout          bar/16                       Eq.:  -0.118 ( -0.098)
       0.436 0.092 0.004 - 0.564 0.342 0.109 CL  -0.118 CF  -0.118
      [0.005 0.003 0.001 - 0.005 0.008 0.007 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 891081141 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]