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Game 2, move 4 : Herd 2-1

Started by diane, July 16, 2010, 11:43:35 AM

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diane

Sorry, no expert understanding of the positions and concise analysis here... ;)

But anyone else can post..so feel free!

Forum rolled a 3-2 after dorbels 2-2 move, and pointed on his head, 7/4, 6/4.

Dorbel obligingly danced with 4-4, so Herd has a 2-1 to place next.

mPPgAUiYM3jAMA:8AmlAEAAAAAA
Never give up on the things that make you smile

diane

ok, voting is close to over, and we have a deadlock - does anyone have any persuading they would like to do?
Never give up on the things that make you smile

stog

Spoiler
13/10 not only gives us a 5 point builder but allows us to hit again and perhaps recycle, whereas the other option breaks our last gasp 1 anchor, i think it is too soon for this, and guards agin dubb5's
[close]

ah_clem

Spoiler

Bringing down a builder with 13/11 is mandatory.  The only real choice is whether to slot the 5 or split the backmen.  We're behind in the race and behind in the match,and those are indicators to play "bold".  But gammons don't do all that much for us, and  our opponent has a checker on the bar which would argue for safe play.

What tips it for me is that a 1-5 backgame structure is poor, so let's try to move the back point up a bit (or escape them altogether) by splitting. Plus, I count 18 rolls that hit after splitting - that's more than the usual 15 for an opening roll of 2-1.


[close]


blitzxz

We need to get our back men moving immediatly. We can't play blitz here because we don't have enough attackers. We hope here to prime and/or pick up more checkers from the outfield with out back checkers which we have to move any way in some point.

ah_clem

Quote from: blitzxz on July 18, 2010, 02:16:02 PM
We need to get our back men moving immediatly. We can't play blitz here because we don't have enough attackers. We hope here to prime and/or pick up more checkers from the outfield with out back checkers which we have to move any way in some point.

So what move does that translate into?  24/23 24/22 gets the backmen moving too. So does 24/22 6/5, but I didn't seriously consider either of those.

Agree that 13/10 is too passive (he's on the bar, so only has half a roll to hit) but are you in favor of 24/23 13/11?

blitzxz

Quote from: ah_clem on July 18, 2010, 03:38:05 PM
Agree that 13/10 is too passive (he's on the bar, so only has half a roll to hit) but are you in favor of 24/23 13/11?

That's the only one of these two choices that moves back checkers. :) Moving them one, two or three doesn't really make difference as long as we split them to get more flexibility for the future. Then it's natural to bring another primer from mid to make good use of the both numbers. 24/23 13/11.

dorbel

I really don't like to rush opponents, but I last moved a week ago and your dice roll of 2-1 was made on July 16th. At this rate we will be here until Christmas.

diane

Ok, I shall leave this for Zorba to handle then, he was doing such a cracking job.

Did he give any indication when he can next fit in 3 or 4 moves?

Never give up on the things that make you smile

stog

Z is on holiday and Diane is v kindly taking it over while she can, -- please bear with her and everyone especially at holiday times - it isn't always possible to have one facilitator see a match through -- and it can take a bit of work setting up positions and posting. remember also that folks are on different time zones

if you could continue as you can diane, or else ah clem has offered to help - we appreciate your efforts and everyone's here

happy Australia day -- my lad has gone to school in beach wear and sunglasses despite it raining cats and dogs

happy birthday to me!

dorbel

Happy Birthday stog.
Backgammon played at the pace of a move every week is tedious beyond belief. I can't believe that anybody can maintain interest in a match played at that speed. Is a move every day or two really so hard? I'm comitted to this and I manage to check the forum every day, even though I am between houses and have no home Internet. If the moderator can't do that, let's give it up eh.

diane

Never give up on the things that make you smile

diane

Quote from: stog on July 20, 2010, 09:02:02 AMhappy Australia day -- my lad has gone to school in beach wear and sunglasses despite it raining cats and dogs

happy birthday to me!

We had Australia day ages ago...in the sunshine...we appreciate you having rain to match ours in the middle of your summer though  ;)

Happy Birthday Stog!!
Never give up on the things that make you smile

diane

Quote from: dorbel on July 20, 2010, 10:04:37 AMI manage to check the forum every day

The moderator did check the forum every day.

Personally, I am not sure why Zorba agreed to host this match - was the holiday a surprise?  I have done my whack of this and frankly another name calling session with dorbel cos he is having his period or something isn't my cup of tea.

And yes...I could have moved this in the time I am posting this...I can't think where my interest went.
Never give up on the things that make you smile

stog

we all appreciate the time spent 'facilitating' these matches, and z will be back shortly, but if you don't mind and have time, posting the next move diane, that'd be great, or if u need to , just up the file, and ah clem has offered to fill in.

many of these matches have been 'shared' quite successfully so np and folks must realise that it takes longer to set up the polls , positions/ options and sizing the files when we post.


whereas we might have time to 'check in' to the forum - we aren't always in a position timewise to post the next play - especially if there are a lot of options

folks need to know that it can take 20 mins or so to post a position

we appreciate everyone's patience

and let's enjoy a proceedure that is often entertaining and illuminating


thx for my birthday wishes - mrs stog is taking me to the alehouse c u later :)

dorbel

Thank you for efforts to provide this feature stog. I have found it interesting and it has been a very worthwhile exercise. Unfortunately, I am no longer willing to take part in it. Bye.

stog

#16
we've been dropped!



thx dorbel and diane for your efforts this match

dorbel (hi P!)may well finish his match when he can, as may diane, but in the meantime mr monk - r_monk has kindly agreed to be our next guest..welcome to forum match 6............

stog

we could have 2 matches running anyway - that might allow for the time probs or other hiccups that occasionally occur .......and zorba will be back onto this one soon as well.. so enjoy everyone - have a drink on me --it's my birthday :)

ah_clem

Rollout

Spoiler


gnubg 2 ply evaluation puts 24/23 13/11 on top by a small marigin.

gnubg 0-ply rollout  likes  13/11 6/5 (which got no votes)  but the Herd's choice is within the margin of error. 

There's not a huge amount of difference here, and that in itself is worth the price of admission.  I'll start a 2-ply rollout to see if it teases out anything further.


    1. Cubeful 2-ply    24/23 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.015
       0.499 0.139 0.005 - 0.501 0.144 0.005
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    13/10                        Eq.:  +0.007 ( -0.008)
       0.495 0.140 0.005 - 0.505 0.146 0.006
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
   


    1. Rollout          13/11 6/5                    Eq.:  +0.019
       0.503 0.122 0.004 - 0.497 0.277 0.060 CL  +0.019 CF  +0.019
      [0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.006 0.005 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          13/10                        Eq.:  +0.015 ( -0.004)
       0.499 0.129 0.006 - 0.501 0.233 0.036 CL  +0.015 CF  +0.015
      [0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.006 0.004 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    3. Rollout          24/23 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.007 ( -0.012)
       0.496 0.132 0.005 - 0.504 0.236 0.041 CL  +0.007 CF  +0.007
      [0.003 0.002 0.001 - 0.003 0.006 0.004 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          24/23 24/22                  Eq.:  -0.004 ( -0.023)
       0.491 0.119 0.004 - 0.509 0.244 0.030 CL  -0.004 CF  -0.004
      [0.003 0.002 0.001 - 0.003 0.007 0.004 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]

    5. Rollout          24/22 6/5                    Eq.:  -0.014 ( -0.033)
       0.486 0.113 0.004 - 0.514 0.292 0.062 CL  -0.014 CF  -0.014
      [0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.007 0.005 CL   0.007 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 890946208 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]

diane

Match file to current position attached in case it gets picked up in the future.

Thanks stog for handling this so calmly and reasonably  :cool:
Never give up on the things that make you smile

PersianLord

Quote from: stog on July 20, 2010, 07:46:02 PM
we could have 2 matches running anyway - that might allow for the time probs or other hiccups that occasionally occur .......and zorba will be back onto this one soon as well.. so enjoy everyone - have a drink on me --it's my birthday :)

Hi and happy birthday,

Can I also apply to be a player against the forum if you're gonna have 2 matches running?

PL
The leftist's feelings of inferiority run so deep that he cannot tolerate any classification of some things as successful or superior and other things as failed or inferior. This also underlies the rejection by many leftists of the concept of mental illness and of the utility of IQ tests.  - T.K

ah_clem

Quote from: diane on July 20, 2010, 10:02:39 PM
Match file to current position attached in case it gets picked up in the future.

Thanks stog for handling this so calmly and reasonably  :cool:

Thanks for the file.  I've picked it up and posted the next move should Dorbel decide to change his mind and resume.  Stay tuned, everyone....

ah_clem

2-ply gnubg rollout


Spoiler


Pretty much the same results as 0-ply.

Slotting the 5 point is best, followed closely by 13/10 and 13/11 24/23.


    1. Rollout          13/11 6/5                    Eq.:  +0.045
       0.515 0.118 0.006 - 0.485 0.267 0.072 CL  +0.045 CF  +0.045
      [0.004 0.003 0.001 - 0.004 0.007 0.006 CL   0.008 CF   0.008]
       
    2. Rollout          13/10                        Eq.:  +0.036 ( -0.009)
       0.509 0.135 0.006 - 0.491 0.220 0.039 CL  +0.036 CF  +0.036
      [0.003 0.003 0.001 - 0.003 0.007 0.004 CL   0.006 CF   0.006]
       
    3. Rollout          24/23 13/11                  Eq.:  +0.029 ( -0.015)
       0.506 0.129 0.006 - 0.494 0.224 0.033 CL  +0.029 CF  +0.029
      [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.006 0.004 CL   0.005 CF   0.005]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 890946208 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16

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