Game 2, move 1: Herd to move 5-5

[diane]

4NvgASiwZ/ADIA:cIm2AAAAEAAA

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

6-1*(2) / 8-3(2). I really don't see any other choice.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

6-1*(2) / 8-3(2). I really don't see any other choice.

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yup.

[ah_clem]

rolllout

Spoiler

Well, it seemed like a good idea.   Point on his head and make two homeboard points - what's not to like?

What's not to like is the premature burial, the obliteration of the 8 point, and leaving a big old stack on the midpoint.  Add 'em up and the Herd's play is a .17 whopper.  It's better to just make the three point and build a prime in front of the two checkers - remember the aphorism:  attack a single checker, block if there's two or more.  With 20-20 hindsight the blocking play is superior to the attacking/blitzing play.

Now, if we had more checkers in the zone, the attacking play would probably be right.



    1. Rollout          13/3(2)                      Eq.:  +0.683
       0.658 0.235 0.033 - 0.342 0.070 0.003 CL  +0.424 CF  +0.683
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]

    2. Rollout          13/8(2) 6/1*(2)              Eq.:  +0.538 ( -0.144)
       0.626 0.226 0.015 - 0.374 0.080 0.005 CL  +0.340 CF  +0.538
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.016]

    3. Rollout          8/3(2) 6/1*(2)               Eq.:  +0.513 ( -0.169)
       0.616 0.269 0.016 - 0.384 0.085 0.005 CL  +0.331 CF  +0.513
      [0.002 0.004 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.015]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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