Game 2, move 6: Herd 3-4

[diane]

hrcjBwAz2xgDBA:cAmuAAAAEAAA

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

10/6-7/4

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

It's between moving both checkers off the ten point and moving one of them and slotting the 4 point with the other.

The two moves are probably pretty close, but I see leaving a blot in our homeboard as an invitation to hit loose.  So I'll play 10/7 10/6.

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[stog]

Spoiler

let him hit loose if he wants! 10/6 7/4

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Slotting the four point is best here.  Evaluation has the other move as a .008 error, while 0-ply rollout pegs it as .03.





EVALUATION:
    1. Cubeful 2-ply    10/6 7/4                     Eq.:  +0.007
       0.504 0.047 0.001 - 0.496 0.046 0.002
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    13/10 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.001 ( -0.008)
       0.498 0.039 0.000 - 0.502 0.035 0.000
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    10/7 10/6                    Eq.:  -0.004 ( -0.011)
       0.499 0.042 0.000 - 0.501 0.040 0.001
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

ROLLOUT:

    1. Rollout          10/6 7/4                     Eq.:  +0.028
       0.505 0.047 0.001 - 0.495 0.044 0.002 CL  +0.017 CF  +0.028
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.006]

    2. Rollout          10/7 10/6                    Eq.:  -0.004 ( -0.032)
       0.496 0.041 0.001 - 0.504 0.040 0.001 CL  -0.006 CF  -0.004
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.006]

    3. Rollout          13/10 13/9                   Eq.:  -0.054 ( -0.082)
       0.483 0.040 0.000 - 0.517 0.037 0.001 CL  -0.027 CF  -0.054
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894086436 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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