Game 3, move 26: Herd to move 3-4

[diane]

r_monk 6-2, no legal moves, and things get a little trickier...

s+0AAHH3bA8AAA:UYmxAAAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Hitting loose has some logic to it.  Even if we're hit, he has to bear in three more checkers before we bear in one.  And if he's going to shake a 3, we may be better off on the bar than staring at an anchor.  The problem with this reasoning is that he may still anchor at which point we're on the bar with him having anchored which is clearly worse.

The alternative plays make it likely that we'll leave a shot, but not nearly as likely as him hitting a direct shot right away.  So I see hitting loose as unnecessarily risky.

That leaves whether to clear the 4 or the 5 point.  Usually you want to clear from the rear, but we can't without leaving a shot.  If we clear the 5 now, it may be easier to bear off safely than if we clear the four, but I'm not entirely sure about this.  Clearing the 5 means that 35 and 36 force us to leave a blot next roll while clearing the four only leaves 36 as the blot-forcer (34 is awkward for both).  That and the fact that clearing the four bears off a checker tilts me toward clearing the four.

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

I am with you on clearing the 4.  It doesn't feel the safest option, but nothing here feels very safe - and that gets a checker off, making absolutely sure that whatever happens next, we cannot be gammoned.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

gnubg does not agree with diane and me. The Herd was correct to clear the 5.



    1. Rollout          5/2 5/1                      Eq.:  +0.609
       0.807 0.740 0.068 - 0.193 0.004 0.000 CL  +0.609 CF  +0.609
      [0.002 0.006 0.005 - 0.002 0.000 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          4/1 4/off                    Eq.:  +0.568 ( -0.041)
       0.784 0.717 0.097 - 0.216 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.568 CF  +0.568
      [0.002 0.005 0.005 - 0.002 0.000 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898221944 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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