Move 0 The Herd to move 2-2

[ah_clem]

Poll closes ~24 hours after the posting date.  Other options cheerfully added upon request.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Sometimes these early doubles can be tricky, and I can't say that I've mastered how to play them.  Making valuable points, unstacking,  and balancing offense vs defense are the key.  Here, we have a chance to make the most valuable point (the 20), but why make one point when you can make two?  Our own four point is very valuable, and moving the anchor out to the 22 seems best.

The other moves have merit, but I think playing on both sides of the board, making a valuable homeboard point, unstacking the six-point, and getting an advanced anchor is the right balance. That's alot of development for one move.  24/20(2) 6/4(2)

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[RickrInSF]

Spoiler

in this case ah_clem, i think ur wrong, either go for offense or defense, i choose offense, 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

[close]

[r_monk]

Spoiler

[in this case ah_clem, i think ur wrong, either go for offense or defense, i choose offense, 13/11(2) 6/4(2)

Me too

[close]

[socksey]

Me three!   

socksey

[KDP]

24-22(2) 6-4(2)

[ah_clem]

No cubes in sight, so no harm in posting a rollout

Spoiler

gnu 0-ply rollout shrugs it shoulders and says "meh?"  



The two main vote getters differ by only .001 equity, which is miniscule in comparison to the .015 margin of error.  Either  will  play well at this match score.

The pure offense play ( 13/11(2) 6/4(2) ) wins more games and more gammons.  So at DMP or gammon-go that would be the move.  The balanced play loses fewer gammons, which makes up for the lower win rate.  The purely defensive play (24/20(2))  is clearly inferior (but probably correct at gammon-save), as are some of the other more "creative" ways of playing this.


Personally, I still like the balanced play.  The reason is that one of the hardest decisions an intermediate player has to make is when to activate the backmen, and the longer you wait to do it, the harder the decision becomes, and the more likely you'll lose large amounts of equity for doing it (or not doing it).  So I like to get the runners going early.  But in this position, it's more a matter of taste - what kind of game do you want to play?  


   1. Rollout          13/11(2) 6/4(2)              Eq.:  +0.110
      0.523 0.159 0.011 - 0.477 0.149 0.012 CL  +0.056 CF  +0.110
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]

   2. Rollout          24/22(2) 6/4(2)              Eq.:  +0.110 ( -0.001)
      0.519 0.140 0.007 - 0.481 0.108 0.006 CL  +0.079 CF  +0.110
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]

   3. Rollout          24/20(2)                     Eq.:  +0.073 ( -0.038)
      0.511 0.103 0.003 - 0.489 0.080 0.004 CL  +0.052 CF  +0.073
     [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]

   4. Rollout          24/22 13/11 6/4(2)           Eq.:  +0.010 ( -0.100)
      0.504 0.147 0.009 - 0.496 0.151 0.009 CL  +0.004 CF  +0.010
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.015]

   5. Rollout          24/22(2) 13/11(2)            Eq.:  -0.002 ( -0.112)
      0.496 0.127 0.009 - 0.504 0.125 0.005 CL  -0.008 CF  -0.002
     [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.013]
       Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
       1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898618771 and quasi-random dice
       Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
       Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
 

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[KDP]

Spoiler

very interesting, i did a very quick rollout after i got home from work today and extreme gammon had making the 4 pt and moving the 2 back men up as its first choice, moving both the back men up to our 24-20 as its second choice and 6-4 (2) 13-11 (2) in 3rd and rated that move an error.

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[r_monk]

Spoiler

Gnubg 3-ply likes 24/22(2) 6/4(2) best. Next is 13/11(2) 6/4(2): -0,017

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