Game 1 Move 4 The Herd to play 6-4

[ah_clem]

Ok, I know that I said I would pause for a cube unless he rolled 6-6, but 6-1 was pretty good too and this is soooo not a cube that I don't want to waste everybody's time.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Running a backman seems suicidal - the laggard is utg, and the one that runs is subject to a single shot.  Too many shots.

Breaking the prime is bad too, especially since there's no reasonable way to do it even if we wanted to.

That leaves abandoning the midpoint as the only real option.  We can play 13/7 13/9 and leave a blot on the 9, or we can play 13/7 8/4 and leave a blot on the 13. Slotting the point behind a prime is usually correct, but here there's nothing to cover it.  But I like 13/9 better for two other reasons:  it leave two fewer shots, and it forces red to abandon his anchor to hit - that gives us more counterplay than him hitting from the midpoint.

13/7 13/9 for me.

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[r_monk]

Spoiler

22/16 8/4 for me. Problem I have with 13/9 13/7 is that we leave a shot ready for one of the two runners to be hit: when Zorba hits, one of the runners is away. I think we have to keep them there. 22/16 of course also leaves a shot, but he has to strip the midpoint for it to hit. I like keeping our midpoint too.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If we run a backman I count 19 shots that either  hit the blot in the outfield or point on the blot in red's inner board . Either is pretty devastating.  And if we're not hit, we still have a gauntlet to run to get the straggler home.

This is a mutual priming game  with a slight advantage to us because of the gap on the 20 and our opponent's burried checkers on the 23.  Say, 55% chance to win.  Running seems to be a less than 50% chance to escape, so I'm inclined to hold the fort for another move or two.   If we're not hit on the 9, we can clean up next roll and by then he's made two moves before we have to abandon anchor and by then the outfield coverage will be less or gone (or he may have crunched his board).

OTOH, we have to abandon the anchor eventually, and we may not see a better opportunity to run than now.  If we're hit and re-anchor (not a given) our timing will look pretty good, and he may be stuck behind that five-prime for awhile. So, I withdraw my "suicidal" assessment of the running play, but I'm going to stick with the holding play.

Whether to abandon anchor is one of the harder questions one faces.  And mutual priming games can be fraught with difficult timing decisions.  Interesting position - I'm eager to hear some others' assessments.

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[stog]

Spoiler

choices........13/7 13/9 for me because that way we retain our anchor and 5 prime, and make him split to hit -if he doesn't hit then something has to give
do feel free to switch my vote to 22/16 8/4 or 13/7 8/4 , if there is a tie with another vote, other than my choice - am away for a few days

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

Something has to give and I'm in favour of this being our anchor, rather than either our mid point or our prime. 22/16, 8/4

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

A doubtful move by The Herd.  Running while we have the chance is the right play here.  It gives us more winning chances although it loses more gammons.  The interesting figure for me is that there's not that much difference in the cubeless equity (.026) but a big difference in the cubeful equity.  If we run and aren't hit, we've probably got a nice cube in a couple of moves.




    1. Rollout          22/16 8/4                    Eq.:  +0.314
       0.597 0.128 0.007 - 0.403 0.141 0.005 CL  +0.186 CF  +0.314
      [0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]

    2. Rollout          13/7 8/4                     Eq.:  +0.239 ( -0.075)
       0.561 0.126 0.004 - 0.439 0.094 0.003 CL  +0.160 CF  +0.239
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]

    3. Rollout          13/9 13/7                    Eq.:  +0.188 ( -0.126)
       0.548 0.122 0.005 - 0.452 0.101 0.003 CL  +0.124 CF  +0.188
      [0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898618771 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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