Game 2 move 0 The Herd to play 5-4

[ah_clem]

How to play a 54. Other options cheerfully added upon request.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The major split (24/20) puts the checker utg.  I don't think that's such a good idea.

Running with 24/15 is plausible.  So is bringing down a builder with 13/8 13/9.

I don't like playing loose in the inner board.

With him having split his backmen and threatening a prime (a weak threat thus far, but still a threat), I like the running play.  24/15 for me.

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

With him having split his backmen and threatening a prime (a weak threat thus far, but still a threat), I like the running play.  24/15 for me.

After his split, it seems like a good idea for us to activate one of our back men too.  I take the point about coming utg, so am also going with the running play: 24/15

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd's choice is a viable play, but not optimal.  Slotting the golden point and either bringing down a builder or hitting loose is best.  All three win about the same amount of games, it's the gammons that make the difference here, albeit a minor one.

Of course, since we're replying to an opening roll one could look up this result here, or here, but that's not in the spirit of this exercise.  Note that the second reference says to play any of these three moves (you'll need to brush up on your Nacktation to read the chart).


    1. Rollout          24/20 13/8                   Eq.:  -0.100
       0.473 0.123 0.012 - 0.527 0.150 0.007 CL  -0.088 CF  -0.100
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.007 CF   0.018]

    2. Rollout          24/20 6/1*                   Eq.:  -0.101 ( -0.001)
       0.474 0.129 0.011 - 0.526 0.150 0.009 CL  -0.085 CF  -0.101
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.019]

    3. Rollout          24/15                        Eq.:  -0.137 ( -0.036)
       0.472 0.116 0.010 - 0.528 0.162 0.007 CL  -0.117 CF  -0.137
      [0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.018]

    4. Rollout          13/9 13/8                    Eq.:  -0.150 ( -0.050)
       0.461 0.141 0.015 - 0.539 0.161 0.011 CL  -0.118 CF  -0.150
      [0.003 0.003 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.025]

    5. Rollout          13/8 6/2*                    Eq.:  -0.174 ( -0.074)
       0.458 0.130 0.009 - 0.542 0.160 0.011 CL  -0.126 CF  -0.174
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.021]

    6. Rollout          13/9 6/1*                    Eq.:  -0.186 ( -0.086)
       0.454 0.139 0.015 - 0.546 0.164 0.013 CL  -0.134 CF  -0.186
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.008 CF   0.020]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        932 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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[KDP]

sorry i missed the voting, but i would have played 24-20 13-8.  the main reason for splitting my back men is that he is threatening to prime us and we cant sit by let us get into that position.  making an advanced anchor will help us and even if we're not hit, its not the end of the world.