Game 2 Move 1 The herd to play 5-3

[ah_clem]

5-3 to play

Position ID: mGfhASjgc/AJIA
Match ID: cIm1AAAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Make as outfield point and safety a blot in the process, or make a homeboard point, leaving the blot?  I don't think any of the other plays are close.

Tough call, but I'm going to say that the three point is not particularly valuable (yet) and keeping our advantage of having escaped a runner is worth slightly more.    Not sure if this is correct.  Make the 10 point.

[close]

[ah_clem]

bump

[ah_clem]

This is looking pretty settled, but I'm going to give it a couple more hours. 

Anyone else want to weigh in on why they're voting for their move?

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The rollout is as lopsided as the vote.  Making the three is a double whopper.


    1. Rollout          15/10 13/10                  Eq.:  -0.058
       0.497 0.113 0.010 - 0.503 0.153 0.005 CL  -0.060 CF  -0.058
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]

    2. Rollout          8/3 6/3                      Eq.:  -0.258 ( -0.200)
       0.450 0.127 0.013 - 0.550 0.196 0.010 CL  -0.188 CF  -0.258
      [0.002 0.002 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.016]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]