Game 2 Move 5 the Herd to Play 4-4

[ah_clem]

Other choicess added upon request.

Position ID: sZ2FASQmr4wDCA
Match ID: cAmyAAAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I don't see any obvious play here, but there are two things that are very clear: we want to cover the blot in our inner board, and moving off the 10 or the 6 is useless.  Perhaps play from the six if we want to waste a four, but I'm not seeing any combination where that is desirable.

So, 8/4, then what?

We can't cover the blot on the bar point, and leaving it where it is subjects it to a double shot, so it's actually safer to hit loose with it. So 7/3* for the second four.

For the last two plays, we can run the backman, bring more checkers into the zone by bringing two down form the midpoint, or a hybrid play of 22/18 13/9.  The hybrid exposes the runner to a triple shot in the outfield, so I'm going to rule that out.

After 8/4 7/3* it looks like a blitz, so bringing as much ammunition into range as possible would be thematic - 13/9(2).  But is blitzing wise here?  He has a solid three point board vs our shaky one, so that says no.  But he also has a blot, which would indicate yes.  We'd like to cover our blot on the 3, and so far the only thing in range is the spares on the 6.  A second builder would help a lot, plus making the 9 gives us additional builders pointed at the five point.

Since quieter running play leaves our blot on the 3 hanging without much support.  I'm going for the blitz.  If he rolls poorly, it looks like we have a cube - if he dances, we're probably too good to cube.

13/9(2) 8/4 7/3*

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[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

I agree with the first 2 you want to play, but read the situation differently regarding the last 2. I don't think we are blitzing. Our board is still pretty porous and disconnected. We're alive because a desperation  play stimulated his greed and he was rewarded for his piggishness by the 2-1 airball.

I also don't want to leave another blot on our 13 point that makes otherwise airballs like 5-1 and 1-1 potentially devastating. Staying in his board also allows him to hit us with an otherwise non-deadly 1-6 or 5-6.

I'm for running with the last 2 4s.

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Bob

[r_monk]

Spoiler

22/14 8/4 7/3 for me. I like the idea of running; that brings us in a safer position than 13/9(2).

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

How about running our back man round to safety on the 10-point and making another home board point, with 22-10, 8-4? It leaves our bar chequer vulnerable to 6s, 42 and 22 but, if hit, at least we get a chance of a return, maybe even a double helping.

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[stog]

Spoiler

22/14 8/4 7/3* for me, running the back man, covering and hitting, but giving him hits with 2,3 and6 ..eek

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[diane]

Spoiler

Cover, hit and run...all good to me..

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[ah_clem]

It looks like we are working toward consensus, but there's enough dissent that I'm going to let this poll run for the full 24 hours.

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

8/4 and 7/3* is almost forced. With the other 4s, I won't run and instead would bring 2 men down; the reason being our possibility of making an anchor next roll if we're hit. So, let us show some guts and remain in his home.

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PL

[ah_clem]

expurgated bot results

Spoiler

I rolled this out in 0-ply gnubg, but I don't want to present the full results as they may color our cube decision.

Suffice it to say that the Herd made the best play; 22/10 8/4 is second best, but is a whopper (~.1 error).  The other moves are much worse.

Full rollout forthcoming.  No participation from me on the cube decision

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