Game 3 move 7 The Herd to play 2-1

[ah_clem]

Z danced with a 6-4.  We roll a mighty 2-1.

Other voting options cheerfully added.

Position ID: ZN+CAVDsPMEHAA
Match ID: QYmoAAAAEAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'm not sure how to play this.  I don't think giving him a direct shot by hitting loose or slotting the 5 is the right play. 6/3 aims another checker at the blot and the 2 point without stripping the six, so that's a real possibility.  But I think what I want to do is make the 5 point, and that means bringing one down form the midpoint (which is in dire need of unstacking anyway).

So, 13/11.  Where to play the one?  Moving it on to the ten allows a 55 joker without improving the position, so I don't like that. 4/3 is playable but passive.  Slotting the bar allows two extra fly-shots form the bar but slots a valuable point and bears a third checker on the blot.  Sounds like a good risk tradeoff.

13/11 8/7 for me.

[close]

[socksey]

Spoiler

I choose the 6/3 move for this one.  It seems the least likelihood of getting us hit and gives us another combo for a possible various hit and cover shots.

[close]

socksey



"An election is a moral horror, as bad as a battle except for the blood; a mud bath for every soul concerned in it." - George Bernard Shaw

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

Hitting loose is obviously risky but putting another on the bar must bring more chances of a gammon, which would win us the match.  And if we get hit, at least we are favourite to re-enter more easily, with chances of maybe picking up those blots en route.  4-1*

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[diane]

Spoiler

Hitting loose is obviously risky but putting another on the bar must bring more chances of a gammon, which would win us the match.  And if we get hit, at least we are favourite to re-enter more easily, with chances of maybe picking up those blots en route.  4-1*

[close]

Ditto...

[r_monk]

Ditto...

Me too.

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'd be inclined to hit loose with a 5 or a 7, but hitting loose with this roll strips the four and leaves only the spares on the six plus the indirect shot from the eight to cover the blot. I like to see more builders lurking before hitting loose.  I count 19 rolls that cover - not too bad, but I like to see more.  I'm not seeing enough checkers in the zone to justify a blitz.

OTOH, putting a second checker on the  roof should prevent him from anchoring, and with two on the bar even if he hits he won't be able to cover his home board blot. So I think the loose hit is sound.  But I still like aiming builders at the 5 point.

But I do like the loose hit better than the passive 6/3, and I'll change my vote if it will make the difference in the Herd's choice.

[close]

[ah_clem]

The vote is now tied, and the tiebreaker is the number of people who post an analysis supporting their move.  Right now we have stiefnu, diane, r_monk and me weighing in on one move (although I'm not sure saying "ditto" really should count) and Socksey pontificating on the other.  Let's hear from some others.

Voting closes in about six hours.

[diane]

So..ditto is not ok...but 'me too' is...

Spoiler

How about..two on the bar is better by far?

[close]

[socksey]

I could as easily take the other side, too.     Since my original was my first thought, I'll stick to that this time.   

socksey



"The dread of loneliness is greater than the fear of bondage, so we get married." - Cyril Connolly

[stog]

Spoiler

ok i switched 4/1* it is

[close]

[r_monk]

Well, sorry for the 'me too' but I thought stiefnu analysed it very well and since I find it still difficult to write in English I was really thankful for diane's 'ditto'  .

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The Herd gets it right again.  He's on the ropes - attack!  Pussyfooting around in the outfield is not too bad (-.033) but hitting is better.  The passive play (6/3) is a whopper.



    1. Rollout          4/1*                         Eq.:  +0.466
       0.720 0.384 0.049 - 0.280 0.071 0.005 CL  +0.630 CF  +0.466
      [0.002 0.004 0.004 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    2. Rollout          13/11 8/7                    Eq.:  +0.433 ( -0.033)
       0.732 0.271 0.037 - 0.268 0.055 0.004 CL  +0.579 CF  +0.433
      [0.002 0.004 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.008]

    3. Rollout          13/10                        Eq.:  +0.416 ( -0.050)
       0.732 0.246 0.033 - 0.268 0.053 0.003 CL  +0.574 CF  +0.416
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.007]

    4. Rollout          13/11 4/3                    Eq.:  +0.381 ( -0.084)
       0.721 0.248 0.037 - 0.279 0.058 0.005 CL  +0.545 CF  +0.381
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.007]

    5. Rollout          6/3                          Eq.:  +0.351 ( -0.115)
       0.712 0.236 0.026 - 0.288 0.060 0.004 CL  +0.516 CF  +0.351
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.007]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 903967096 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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