Game 3 move 16 The Herd to play 2-2

[ah_clem]

We roll double deuces.

Position ID: u9sCABifnRcAAA
Match ID: QQmpAAAAEAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Clear from the rear.  If you can't clear, prepare to clear by stripping the point.  7/3 6/4(2)

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[diane]

Spoiler

I am dithering with this, clear from the rear makes sense...but...that still leaves a rather unsafe position and no flexibility if Zorbs rolls a 6 and has to leave.  I am no good at explaining this stuff, but I am still really tied between options 1 and 2..Option 1 leaves a bad 6-4, and option 2 leaves a bad 6-5, but option 2 makes me feel like I have more I can do if we dont roll that bad roll.

Can anyone help me choose?

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

Can anyone help me choose?

I guess it comes down to deciding if we want to leave an odd or even number of chequers on our 6-point. It's generally better not to leave an odd number, so 7/3 6/4(2) gets my vote.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Can anyone help me choose?

Happy to oblige.

What's our game plan?  Move our checkers past his anchor and off the board without leaving a shot.  To do this, we have to clear the six point.  As Robertie says, "a point that's cleared is not to be feared", i.e. if we clear the six point there's no way to leave a shot on the six, but as long as we have checkers on the six there's a danger of leaving a shot there.

So, after safetying the blot on the 7, our next objective  is to clear the six point.  With three checkers on the six, the only way we clear it next roll is with doubles.  With two checkers, we can clear it about half the time.  So stripping it means we'll probably clear it a roll (or more) sooner.  Hence the rule of thumb: clear the outermost point, and if you can't clear it prepare to clear it next roll by stripping it.

Now, this rule of thumb is not always applicable.  Sometimes the position leads to extra shots if you follow this rule, and the extra shots can outweigh the benefits of early clearing.  But as far as I can tell, this is not one of those positions.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Clear from the rear.  The other play is a whopper.



    1. Rollout          7/3 6/4(2)                   Eq.:  +0.770
       0.902 0.037 0.000 - 0.098 0.000 0.000 CL  +0.836 CF  +0.770
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          7/1 6/4                      Eq.:  +0.675 ( -0.095)
       0.868 0.032 0.001 - 0.132 0.001 0.000 CL  +0.763 CF  +0.675
      [0.001 0.001 0.001 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 CL   0.002 CF   0.003]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 905458359 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

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